[lbo-talk] Nuking Tel-Aviv was: Edward Said...

[Brad DeLong]

>On 26/9/2003 4:31 PM, "lbo-talk-request at lbo-talk.org"
><lbo-talk-request at lbo-talk.org> wrote:
>
>>>  Brad>...nuclear destruction of Tel Aviv.
>>>
>>>    Oy vey! Does even Podhoretz believe that w/ 200-300 nukes Israel
>>>  will ever face any threat from an Arab state acquiring them?
>>>  Remember Osirak?
>>
>>  Oh. The nukes will not be delivered by an Arab *state*. Damascus,
>>  Cairo, and Baghdad may, however, barbeque in response...
>>
>>
>>  Brad DeLong
>
>Do you seriously think that is even a remote possibility?
>
>If deterrence works against a state using its own delivery device - as you
>seem to believe, I am not so confident

Well then if you are not confident that deterrence works against 
states, you've just answered your own question.


>- then why doesn't it work against a
>state using a terrorist proxy, which is in effect just another delivery
>system, and one which would be very quickly uncovered. Maybe - this is
>pretty far out - Cairo could use terrorists in the hope that Tel Aviv would
>mistakenly retaliate against Damascus. So, if we go out on a wild limb, we
>have a fraction of full deterrence against terrorism - but is it a small
>fraction, and isn't the full deterrence supposed to be infinite???

I'm not interested in Herman Kahn's theories. I'm interested in 
what's going to happen in the world.