Despite repeated avowals to the contrary, so far we seem to be getting the best possible short term solution: end of hostilities and negotiations in both Najaf and Fallujah, mediated in the former by Sistani forces, and conducted in the latter with local sunni notables.
<snip>
I'm an optimist because it's intellectually more challenging :o)
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Nothing wrong with optimism, it's a necessary survival skill. But this time, I suspect there's little reason for it.
I think of the US' 'relationship' with Iraq as being similar to that between an unapologetically abusive man and his wife. The man, obsessed with control, wants his wife to be obedient and believes he has the right to use violence to enforce her compliance. Because this is his fundamental belief, no amount of marriage counseling (or negotiation) will change the situation, which is founded on and maintained through violence.
As you know, the US didn't invade Iraq only to see its objectives negotiated and legislated away by a democratically elected group. It's goal, broadly defined, is control or influence or, to quote Powell, '"dominance". Because dominance is the goal and violence is the method used to try to establish dominance it's certain a good number of Iraqis will be compelled to resist. So, violence is certain at varying levels for as long as American forces -- there to enforce the will of Washington -- remain in the country.
And there is another factor...
Washington, deeply in love with its arsenal and, like all great powers of the past, convinced it will 'prevail' because of its arsenal and the superiority of its forces negotiates in bad faith.
Consider --
from the WSJ
U.S. Helicopter Crashes in Iraq; Gunmen Attack U.S. Convoy
Associated Press April 13, 2004 8:24 a.m.
FALLUJAH, Iraq -- A U.S. helicopter crashed and was in flames on the ground Tuesday outside Fallujah. Witnesses said it was hit by a rocket.
In the south, hundreds of U.S. troops converging on Najaf for a showdown with a radical Shiite cleric ran into an ambush that killed one soldier.
There was no immediate word on casualties from the crash of the helicopter, which was burning 12 miles (20 kilometers) east of Fallujah in the village of Zawbaa. Witnesses said they saw a rocket hit the craft.
U.S. troops who converged on the site were attacked by gunmen. Witnesses said four U.S. soldiers were hit.
While Fallujah has been relatively calm for four days, the area between the beseiged city and Baghdad has seen heavy clashes between gunmen and U.S. forces. Insurgents shot down another Apache on Sunday in nearby Abu Ghraib, killing its two crewmembers.
Before Tuesday's helicopter crash, a U.S. convoy was attacked near the same site, and two Humvees and a truck were burning, said witnesses, who also reported U.S. casualties.
Meanwhile, a large force of 2,500 U.S. troops backed by tanks and heavy artillery deployed outside the city of Najaf on Tuesday on a mission that the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, said aimed to "capture or kill" radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The force is larger than the one currently besieging Fallujah.
[...]
full at (subscription required) --
<http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108184480355881177,00.html?mod=home_whats_news_us>
Again...
"Meanwhile, a large force of 2,500 U.S. troops backed by tanks and heavy artillery deployed outside the city of Najaf on Tuesday on a mission that the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, said aimed to "capture or kill" radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The force is larger than the one currently besieging Fallujah."
...
What are these forces being deployed to do if we're on the verge of negotiating our way to a peaceful resolution? Why is Lt. Gen. Sanchez claiming his objective is to "capture or kill" al Sadr, the very fellow with whom we're supposed to be negotiating, if negotiation is something the Americans are serious about? If the abuser, while sitting on the couch, declares his intention to 'control or kill' his wife you'd understand he was not a good candidate for marriage mediation.
The Americans are giving us evidence of suffering from a similar illness.
DRM