[lbo-talk] Aspect of India's Econ Report:TheRealStateofIndia'sEconomy

uvj at vsnl.com uvj at vsnl.com
Fri Apr 16 11:14:12 PDT 2004


Alexandre Fenelon wrote:


>> India's per capita GDP is not growing at 5% per year. During the 80s, per
>> capita NNP grew by about 3% per annum and in the 90s by 3.5%. With
>> population growing at 2% a year, 5% per capita growth can not be achieved
>>at
>>the current growth rates.


> -Hmmm....but the growth seems to have accelerated to 6-8% in the last 5
> years?

No, the growth had slowed down in the last 3 years. The GDP grew at 4.4%. 5.6% and 4.4% in 2000-01, 01-02 and 02-03 respectively. The growth in agriculture was +0.3%, minus 0.4%., + 5.7% and minus 3.1% in 99-00, 00-01, 01-02 and 02-03 respectively. These are the official figures presented to the Parliament by the finance minister.


>>So a prolonged slowdown will have serious consequences, though it is hard
>>to imagine what would cause such a slowdown.


> -The growth of public debt?

Yes, that's possible, but the crisis due to the internal debt trap doesn't look imminent. My impression is that Indian industry poised to begin a new cycle of growth. All major industries such as steel, textiles, pharmaeceuticals, automobiles, consumer durables, software etc likely show considerable growth in the coming years.

Ulhas



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