>> India's per capita GDP is not growing at 5% per year. During the 80s, per
>> capita NNP grew by about 3% per annum and in the 90s by 3.5%. With
>> population growing at 2% a year, 5% per capita growth can not be achieved
>>at
>>the current growth rates.
> -Hmmm....but the growth seems to have accelerated to 6-8% in the last 5
> years?
No, the growth had slowed down in the last 3 years. The GDP grew at 4.4%. 5.6% and 4.4% in 2000-01, 01-02 and 02-03 respectively. The growth in agriculture was +0.3%, minus 0.4%., + 5.7% and minus 3.1% in 99-00, 00-01, 01-02 and 02-03 respectively. These are the official figures presented to the Parliament by the finance minister.
>>So a prolonged slowdown will have serious consequences, though it is hard
>>to imagine what would cause such a slowdown.
> -The growth of public debt?
Yes, that's possible, but the crisis due to the internal debt trap doesn't look imminent. My impression is that Indian industry poised to begin a new cycle of growth. All major industries such as steel, textiles, pharmaeceuticals, automobiles, consumer durables, software etc likely show considerable growth in the coming years.
Ulhas