Chronicle of Higher Education - web daily - April 16, 2004
More Students Plan to Vote in Presidential Election and Fewer Approve of Bush, Poll Finds By ELIZABETH F. FARRELL
President Bush's approval rating among college students has dropped considerably over the past six months, and many more students plan to vote in this year's presidential election even though they feel increasingly alienated by both political parties, according to the results of a poll designed by Harvard University's Institute of Politics and announced at a news conference here on Thursday.
The survey was based on interviews with 1,205 randomly selected college students from March 12 to 23. It found that 47 percent of the respondents approved of President Bush, compared with 61 percent in October, a number that had remained steady in the previous two surveys, released in April 2003 and October 2002.
Students also reported a higher level of political engagement, with 62 percent saying they definitely plan to vote in the 2004 presidential election, compared with 50 percent of students surveyed just before the 2000 election.
"You really cannot discount college students in the election this year," said Caitlin Monahan, a sophomore at Harvard who worked on the survey. "It's the first [presidential] election since 9/11, and that's the critical event for our generation."
College students make up 4.5 percent of the electorate, and if 62 percent actually vote, that will be one million votes, according to Dan Glickman, director of the Harvard institute and a former Democratic congressman from Kansas and U.S. agriculture secretary.
"The needs of a campaign are to get out your base and marshal proven voters," said David King, an associate professor of public policy at Harvard and the institute's research director. "We'll see a change this year because politicians are going after this group."
The number of students who said they plan to vote for Mr. Bush was unchanged from the October 2003 poll, with 38 percent saying they would cast their ballots in his favor. Sen. John F. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has a 10-percentage-point lead, with 48 percent of students reporting that they intend to vote for him. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
Mr. Kerry gained much of his backing from students who had previously supported Ralph Nader or were undecided six months ago. Five percent of students said they still plan to vote for Mr. Nader.
"It's more of a referendum on Bush than Kerry," said John Della Volpe, a partner in the polling company Schneiders/Della Volpe/Schulman, which conducted the interviews for the survey. Mr. Della Volpe noted that Mr. Kerry's lead was "soft" because many college voters are still unfamiliar with him. "It presents an opportunity for Kerry to strengthen his lead," or for Mr. Bush to cut into it by actively courting students on the issues they care about.
Increasing disillusionment with the war in Iraq was the main factor in students' growing disenchantment with Mr. Bush, with opposition rising to 49 percent, up from 37 percent in the October survey, on that issue. Students also deviated from the general population in the priorities they placed on a host of political issues, with 33 percent rating defense -- the war in Iraq and terrorism -- as their top concern.
"The war has affected the lives of young people and could likely have more of an effect on them," said Mr. Glickman. "That wasn't the case a few months ago."
For the first time in the six-year history of the survey, pollsters asked a series of questions designed to classify students' political affiliations. Based on the results, survey analysts concluded that students are less likely to identify with either party because they are "repulsed by the extremism of each," said Mr. King.
Out of four political classifications, 32 percent of students fit the "traditional liberal" definition and 16 percent fell under the "traditional conservative" definition, based on their views of divisive issues such as taxes, health care, gay marriage, and affirmative action.
Two new groups, however, claimed a larger total stake of college students -- the "religious centrists," with 23 percent, and the "secular centrists," with 29 percent. Those more-moderate groups share similar views on the environment and affirmative action, but differ on the role religion should play "in government."
Those groups are expected to play a key role in determining the outcome of the election, as they are more evenly divided on support for each candidate, according to Mr. Glickman.
Mr. Glickman, and others who worked on the survey, said it is imperative that the candidates court that middle group of voters and college students over all.
Philosophical reasons, however, outweigh tactical ones to woo that majority, according to Mr. Glickman.
"Every major social change and revolution in the history of the human race has come from young people," said Mr. Glickman. It's important to engage them in the political process because "if this movement [for change] doesn't come from colleges, it's not going to come from anywhere."
A summary of the poll, "The Political Personality of College Students," and previous surveys are available on the institute's Web site <http://www.iop.harvard.edu/>.