> Japan is an island nation. To be a US-style military thug, Japan would
> have to create (1) a vast fleet and (2) an indigenous aerospace sector.
> Neither of which is going to happen, though, because the East Asian
> bourgeoisie is doing just fine selling each other electronics, Tsangtao
> and anime.
I didn't say Japan would be a US-style military thug -- only the US has that ambition, thank the Lawd.
Japan has a navy too -- and some of those aeroplane thing-ys that fly around in the air. It wouldn't carry out a world-conquering mission. Most likely it would either lash out if it felt threatened by North Korea, say (which has shot missiles over Japan), thereby touching off a general war in Asia, or it would be persuaded to send some real shooting troops to a place like Iraq at the request of the real US thug. The former is pretty unlikely, granted, and the latter would touch off a real uproar among the Japanese public, but the probability of neither is zero, and, as the Bulletin of Atomic Sciences piece Ulhas pointed to says, the existence of the Self-Defence Force itself has a lot of people worried. To quote from that piece:
"Since the late 1970s, the United States has nudged and cajoled Japan to assume greater military responsibilities. This suggests to some East Asian leaders that the United States wants Japan to become a substantial military power. That interpretation is off the mark. What the United States really wants is a Japan that more fully contributes to America's dominant global role, while continuing to depend on the United States for its security."
And "The Japanese military has many weaknesses, and it is sharply constrained by strict rules of engagement rooted in its post-war constitution. Moreover, Japanese governments have generally shied away from promoting a larger military. Given that, East Asian fears about the possibility of Japanese military resurgence may seem puzzling.
"But the fears persist nonetheless. The people of East Asia experienced unrestrained Japanese power first hand in the 1930s and 1940s, and they understand that today's Japan could become a military superpower very quickly. Japan's $4.6 trillion gross national product is the world's second largest. And, despite spending barely one percent of that gross national product on its armed forces, Japan's defense budget is the world's third largest.
"To be sure, the percentage of Japanese defense spending devoted to research and development is small- 3.2 percent in 1995. But it has risen steadily since 1976, when it accounted for just 1.2 percent of the defense budget.
"These low percentages, however, are misleading. Japan's civilian technology generates many innovations with potential military applications, ranging from flat-panel displays and semiconductors to composite materials. Giant corporations, while not heavily dependent on defense contracts, devote considerable resources to military-relevant research and development, as well as to dual-use technologies. They are encouraged to do so by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and the Defense Agency. "
Menon makes quite a few other good points in it. Of course, it was written 7 years ago, but some of his speculations are acquiring a bit of reality. For example, Japan has sent non-real (i.e., non-shooting) troops to support the US in Iraq, and at this moment discussion is beginning in U.S. military circles about drawing down U.S. troops in Korea to ease the crunch on the army due to the trouble in Iraq. The recent flare-up in conservative Japanese circles about the returned "selfish, individualistic" hostages has a lot to do with the conservative drive to turn the Self-Defense Force into a "real" military force, which has been going on relentlessly for years.
As for international trade preventing war, I seem to recall that that was a popular theory before WW I, and it didn't seem to work very well then.
What concerns me more and more is the "peak oil" problem, together with what a lot of scientists consider likely -- very great world-wide climatic changes in the not-too-distant future. A frantic scramble for oil as reserves dwindle and no practical energy alternatives have been put into place, plus a very mixed-up world climate situation, would probably completely fracture what little world peace there is now.
Have a nice day.
Jon Johanning // jjohanning at igc.org __________________________________ A sympathetic Scot summed it all up very neatly in the remark, 'You should make a point of trying every experience once, excepting incest and folk-dancing.' -- Sir Arnold Bax