[lbo-talk] No Bounce for Kerry

[Nathan Newman]

And note, some of the big differences between the poll numbers are whether
they poll "likely voters" versus "registered voters."  Kerry has a much
stronger lead in polls surveying registered voters.   Since there is a lot
of effort to turnout people who don't regularly vote, and register new
people who are likely excluded completely from many of these polls, I
actually trust the polls showing a higher lead for Kerry.

It's not giant, but the reality is that roughly 45% of the likely voting
population has completely committed to one candidate or the other.  Of the
remaining 10% of likely voters, Kerry has grabbed a few extra votes, but
seems to have a wide opportunity to make inroads into the infrequent and
currently unregistered population who are much more favorable towards his
candidacy.

Nathan Newman

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com>
To: <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org>
Sent: Monday, August 02, 2004 6:33 PM
Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] No Bounce for Kerry

Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:


>The latest US polls found that Democratic presidential candidate
>John Kerry has managed what few before him have done: he walked away
>from four days of party cheerleading in Boston without creating a
>post-convention "bounce" of public support.

You will amend this entry to include the ABC/WP poll, right?

Doug
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