[lbo-talk] employment

Nathan Newman nathanne at nathannewman.org
Fri Aug 6 12:51:15 PDT 2004


----- Original Message ----- From: "Christian Gregory" <christian11 at mindspring.com>
>I guess I really don't buy "populist" critiques of these statistics. If
Joe 6-pack
>doesn't get that the CPI and UE estimates are estimates, go talk to him,
>b/c of statistical agencies in the world, the BLS has to be counted among
>the best, by any standard--it's super transparent and user-friendly, and
has
>been very open to change. Does it take a little brain power to figure out
>exactly what's going on? Yes. So what? That the numbers get used as if
>they were true on the face of it can hardly be laid at the BLS's doorstep.

This complete defense of government information is kind of amazing. Yes, the BLS is better than most agencies, maybe almost any, but there is always a lot of "garbage in, garbage out" problems. I'm sorry, I just don't buy that the government even as all the information necessary to track jobs fully in this economy. Yes, they try to make up for it with estimates, but those estimates are based on assumptions about what's going on in the economy, assumptions that other analysts rightly should question at points.

Maybe it's because I spend enough of my work life dealing with low wage workers who don't come near any statistical agency-- they are "independent contractors" or off the books or otherwise kept out of business records quite purposefully. Wages records are manipulated, overtime work is not reported.

And I am still supposed to take the BLS numbers as gospel?

Nathan Newman



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