Probably not. Perzel barely won the seat in 2000 -- by less than a hundred votes. Soon after that election, his district was re-apportioned so that it's now solidly Republican. Then in the 2002 election, he wiped the floor with his Democratic challenger, garnering about 80% of the vote.
But then again, this election is going to bring out the Kerry vote, presumably including voters who stayed home in 2002. Kearney will certainly benefit from that, and he has tried hard to distance himself from his opponent. I think he may be over-estimating the support for his campaign issues (increasing the minimum wage, reducing the property tax burden for poor families, increasing health care coverage) in the Northeast, partly due to the fact that he only recently moved to that district, specifically to challenge the truly awful Perzel.
-- Matthew Snyder Philadelphia, PA