Who knows -- but here's Marc Cooper before the recall vote:
And if I were a Venezuelan, I wouldn't hesitate for a moment. My vote would be to recall Hugo Chavez. Let's be clear: I make no illusions about his opposition. It is led, in great part, by an oil-spoiled oligarchy and by elite right-wing parties. This opposition is also buoyed by Bush administration support. And most likely braced by numerous covert programs, not necessarily excluding the CIA itself.
Further, the traditional Venezuelan political class wallows in corruption and dysfunction, having squandered on itself the vast petroleum-based riches of Venezuela. It was only a matter of time until a populist demagogue would come along to exploit the righteous anger of millions of impoverished Venezuelans. So I'm fully cognizant of the fact that Hugo Chavez is but a Frankenstein created by a failed political system.
But so what? He's still a Frankenstein. And the sycophantic little minuets that Ali and legions of other Chavez groupies including Mark Weisbrot and Richard Gott perform with this thug are truly appalling. American and British leftists find themselves so inorganic to power, so relegated to the margins, so detached from the "masses" they purport to lead and enlighten, that their politics often becomes little but primitive cheerleading for any tin-pot Third World dictator who strikes an anti-American pose. Truly pathetic.
Venezuelan leftists know much better, because they actually have to live in Venezuela under Chavez's authoritarian and intellectually-insulting rule. The most important and imaginative of the country's leftist parties, Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) and Causa R, stand in firm opposition to Chavez and along with the country's central labor federation are supporting his recall. I understand where they're coming from. Last year I spent a couple of hours in Chavez' presence during a clumsily arranged "press conference" in Brazil and I found my IQ dropping by the minute. Chavez is but a brutish ego-maniac who blathers on for hours at a time about matters he knows nothing about. Imagine a cheap, cartoonish imitation of Fidel Castro with absolutely not a trace of any of the redeeming qualities one can find in the Cuban lider maximo.
There is no "Bolivarian Revolution" in Venezuela. Instead you find the anti-democratic demagogy of a blow-hard bully who - in the name of "serving the people"-imposes harsh austerity and poco a poco erodes whatever survives of Venezuelan democracy.
Check out Randy Paul's well-documented critique of Chavez, also coming from the left.
Venezuela, unfortunately, languishes in a lose-lose dilemma. No credible opposition candidate is emerging to win a new election if Chavez loses. And, worse, Chavez seems to be rebounding in the polls, precisely because of the devil-you-know reflex.
But what's right is right. The right vote on Sunday is - "Si!" Yes! to recall of Hugo Chavez.
UPDATE: All indications on the eve of the vote are, unfortunately, that Chavez will win the vote. Given the opposition's failure to come forward with a credible alternative, the vote is being perceived by many as either Chavez or Chaos. The WaPo's Marcela Sanchez has this insightful column on how the international (U.S.) oil companies are now quietly supporting Chavez and how the Bush administration might also be, reluctantly, on board. Grim. Very grim.
And then after:
If you don't mind I'll withold any applause for yesterday's electoral victory by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
I find nothing redeeming in the record of this former Army Colonel and former coup plotter who-- with the solidarity of comfortable cafe revolutionaries in London and New York-- now fancies himself the embodiment of Radical Democracy. For those who want to pursue that delusion click here to read the gushing report from the Cuban Communist Party mouthpiece, the very Orwellian Granma Internacional.
Not every leftist, thank God, has been taken in by this blustering con man. After interviewing Chavez in 1998, Gabriel Garcia Marquez said he felt he had been speaking to two different men: 'One a self-styled visionary who had been granted the opportunity to save his country. The other... an illusionist, who might pass into history as just another despot.'
I'm convinced the latter is on the money.