Challenging a Media Myth: '68 Riots Didn't Doom Humphrey
N EW YORK If you've read or heard it once, you've probably read or heard it a hundred times in the past few weeks: If anti-Bush protests turn violent at the Republican National Convention in New York next week, it will surely doom Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) to defeat in November. After all, the conventional wisdom holds, this is precisely what happened to Vice President Hubert Humphrey in 1968 after the infamous street battles that took place in Chicago during the Democratic gathering there, at the height of the Vietnam War.
As often is the case in such distant matters, a little research shows that this is plain bunk. Humphrey actually gained in the polls immediately following the convention.
According to Gallup Poll data, in a national survey taken Aug. 7-12, 1968, before the Chicago convention, Republican nominee Richard M. Nixon easily led Humphrey (who was expected to get his party's nod later that month in Chicago) by 38.5% to 26%, with the third-party candidate, Gov. George Wallace, grabbing 16.7%.
So what did the Gallup survey taken on Aug. 30 of that year, immediately after the Chicago convention, with the protestor/police riots still fresh in the public's mind, show? Humphrey actually gained support, with Nixon steady at 38.2%, Humphrey up to 28.7% and Wallace at 19.5%.
In other words, post-riots, Humphrey, who had trailed by 12.5%, had closed the gap to 9.5%.
The next poll, taken Sept. 19-24, showed almost no difference. Only later did Humphrey make his run, nearly catching Nixon in the popular vote (partly due to the vice president belatedly taking a more dovish position on the war).
Another question often raised in accounts of 1968: Why was there such anger among antiwar protestors and dovish Democratic delegates over the convention choosing Humphrey as their candidate?
One explanation: Gallup, in that pre-convention poll taken Aug. 7-12, also asked where people would stand if the peace candidate, Sen. Eugene McCarthy, got the Democratic nod. The result put McCarthy much closer to Nixon than Humphrey at that point: Nixon 38.6%, McCarthy 33.4% and Wallace 15.5%.
Asked to pick the party nominee, 48% named McCarthy, 36% Humphrey.
Perhaps that's why, in the August 30 poll, a vast majority of Americans (76% in favor) said they favored "a nationwide primary election" to select nominees in the future, not party conventions.
--Greg Mitchell is editor of E&P.