[The reporters say "the math behind the strategy is powerful" but what they present is anything but. It's a cascade of self-delusion that used to be the province of the left. Maybe there's other math somewhere?]
[On the other hand, their picture of a campaign feeling desparate is more convincing. Here's a chuffing paragraph:
The nation's face is being reshaped in ways that aren't helpful to the Bush effort. The Hispanic population is exploding in size, and Hispanic voters are heavily Democratic. Other nonwhite ethnic groups are also growing. If all demographic groups split their votes this fall as they did in 2000, the Bush team estimates that Mr. Bush would finish with three million fewer votes than Democratic candidate John Kerry. In 2000, Mr. Bush lost to Al Gore by 500,000 votes in the popular vote. The growth in Hispanics largely accounts for the bigger gap.]
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL August 30, 2004; Page A1
Mobilization Plan Bush's Big Priority: Energize Conservative Christian Base
Unusual Strategy Plays Down Importance of Swing Vote As Demographics Shift A Coordinator in Each Church
By JACKIE CALMES and JOHN HARWOOD Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
WEST CHESTER, Ohio -- Frank York's mission for George W. Bush began in May, registering voters at the 2,200-member Tri-County Baptist Church he attends here.
By June, the 66-year-old campaign volunteer figured he was getting the congregation covered. So he branched out, knowing he could find like- minded voters virtually any place in Cincinnati's exploding suburbs, a magnet for Christian conservatives. He even took his registration clipboard to the "Dog Fest," a popular canine carnival, despite his aversion to dogs.
On Saturday he knocked on doors in a new subdivision and yesterday, he tucked a few registration forms into his Bible before heading to church. There he signed up a half-dozen remaining prospects. So far Mr. York has registered 604 voters -- and he won't quit until Ohio's Oct. 2 registration deadline.
"Some friends ask, 'How can you support a Republican?' " says the 66- year-old former General Motors Corp. autoworker and longtime union member. "I say, 'I put moral and Christian values ahead of union values.' "
In the tight 2004 race, no group is more important to Mr. Bush than evangelicals and Christian conservatives. As Republicans gather for their national convention in New York starting today, these religious conservatives are at the heart of a Bush campaign that is turning traditional general-election strategy on its head. Instead of focusing on undecided swing voters, Bush advisers are putting top priority on maximizing voter turnout among conservative constituencies already disposed to back the president.
The nation's face is being reshaped in ways that aren't helpful to the Bush effort. The Hispanic population is exploding in size, and Hispanic voters are heavily Democratic. Other nonwhite ethnic groups are also growing. If all demographic groups split their votes this fall as they did in 2000, the Bush team estimates that Mr. Bush would finish with three million fewer votes than Democratic candidate John Kerry. In 2000, Mr. Bush lost to Al Gore by 500,000 votes in the popular vote. The growth in Hispanics largely accounts for the bigger gap.
Other trends also put bumps in Mr. Bush's road. Younger voters who grew up in the era of Bill Clinton rather than Ronald Reagan seem harder for Republicans to reach. Also, Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg notes that birth and demographic trends make them the most diverse generation yet: Just 65% of them are white, compared to 90% of seniors 65 and older. Early on, these youngest voters were the most supportive of the war in Iraq of any age group. Now they are the least.
Among women in 2000, Mr. Bush was 12 points behind Mr. Gore, but as president he seemed to narrow the gender gap after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. Republicans spoke hopefully of "security moms." Yet polls show the gap has widened again. Meanwhile, Democrats are mounting an unprecedented effort to register unmarried women -- an estimated 20% of the electorate that tends to be less educated, less affluent and Democrat-leaning.
Many Arab-Americans and Muslims, who once seemed an emerging Republican constituency, are upset over Iraq. Among senior citizens, Mr. Bush had hoped that with the new Medicare prescription drug law, he'd more than make up the four percentage points by which he trailed Mr. Gore among voters 60 and older. Instead, polls show roughly half of seniors oppose the law, and a majority oppose him.
These are the headwinds that help explain Mr. Bush's unconventional strategy. Since the advent of television brought presidential candidates into voters' living rooms, the general-election campaigns of both major parties have been targeted toward winning swing voters at the political center. Now, more than any modern campaign, the Bush effort, led by White House adviser Karl Rove, has downplayed that goal in favor of a drive to wring more votes from the president's committed core of supporters. Mr. Rove calls it a "mobilization election."
Viewers of this week's Republican convention won't hear much about the strategy. For the broad national television audience, the party is showcasing moderates such as former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Some party strategists, accustomed to the more traditional courtship of suburban swing voters, consider Mr. Rove's approach risky. Playing to conservative Christians and other elements of the Republican base could alienate wavering voters such as Jews who are attracted by the president's strong support for Israel. One of Mr. Bush's initiatives that might turn away moderates is his embrace of a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.
Yet the math behind the strategy is powerful. Some 195 million Americans were eligible to vote in 2000. Only 105 million actually did, splitting virtually evenly between Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore. If the views of nonvoters resembled those of voters, as opinion surveys suggest they did, there were as many as 45 million potential voters for both Messrs. Bush and Gore who stayed home.
Among the group of latent Bush supporters, the president's strategists have focused particularly on white Christian conservatives. Exit polls of actual 2000 voters show conservative Christians making up 14% of the electorate, but Republican Party surveys suggest that the same group is typically closer to 19% of voters.
>From that, Mr. Rove concludes that some five million conservative
Christians failed to turn out four years ago. Because 82% of those who
voted backed Mr. Bush, the nonvoters represented a missed opportunity
in the range of four million votes.
Moreover, Christian conservatives are part of one big demographic trend that is working in Republicans' favor -- the rapid development of "exurbs" beyond the suburbs of big cities. Married families with children, many of them conservative Christians, are flocking to these exurbs but are often slow to register and vote.
"It takes them time to get settled, pick the right grocery store, the right church, and then get registered to vote," says Mr. Rove. "These are places we've got a lot of natural support that we've got to energize and turn out."
Such regions include fast-growing Lake and Osceola counties outside Orlando, Fla.; Minnesota's Scott County outside the Twin Cities; St. Croix County outside Eau Claire, Wis.; and Deschutes County around Bend, Ore.
In Ohio, the "Tri-County" region north of Cincinnati -- Hamilton, Butler and Warren counties -- is key to Mr. Rove's strategy. It's where Mr. York, the retired auto worker, is doing his registration work. "What used to be fields upon fields is now houses upon houses," says Mr. York's wife, Dorcas, 64, who often joins him going door-to-door. "We also have growing families constantly upgrading. They see what we're doing as a community service -- the last thing on their minds seems to be their voter registration."
Warren County, which sits between Cincinnati and Dayton and increasingly is home to high-earners who work in the cities, is No. 52 on the Census Bureau's list of 100 fastest-growing counties. It's the sort of place another Republican campaign would take for granted: 95% white, dominated by families with children, with a median household income of about $60,000 -- nearly 40% above the national average. Warren County's 2000 vote went more than 2-to-1 for Mr. Bush. Yet, mindful of the need to get that vote out in big numbers, the president stopped in the county seat of Lebanon in May on a bus tour through Ohio, which is the one of the most important swing states targeted by both the Bush and Kerry campaigns.
Mr. Kerry isn't seriously contesting Mr. Bush for the votes of white evangelicals or other conservatives, since his chances of winning significant support are slim. Instead, his campaign is seeking to win Ohio and other battleground states by exploiting anxieties over Iraq and the economy to rally blacks, union members and suburban moderates to the Democratic ticket.
Christian conservative churches have become prominent features of many exurban areas, and their members tend to like Mr. Bush's positions such as his support of a gay-marriage ban. In Warren County new churches are going up and pews are full at a range of denominations, among them Catholics, Church of God, Churches of Christ, and Evangelical Free Church.
Warren County Republican Party Chairman Tom Grossman, a lawyer at Cincinnati's Taft, Stettinius & Hollister, says the nondenominational Grace Chapel he attends has a voter-registration table every Sunday. "It's not sponsored by the Republican Party," he says, "but we make sure it's there." Also, he says, "In every major church we've got coordinators identified."
A campaign document earlier this year spelled out coordinators' duties. Among them: By July 31, send church directories to campaign headquarters; by Aug. 15, "talk to your Church's seniors or 20-30 something group about Bush/Cheney '04;" by Sept. 26, "All nonregistered church members must be registered to vote;" and, by the Sunday before Election Day, "Distribute voter guides in your church."
Stoking Christian conservatives' energies is a fight to place on Ohio's Nov. 2 ballot a proposed state constitutional amendment banning same- sex marriages or civil unions. To activists' chagrin, the Republican Party hasn't gotten involved. But the party is likely to gain anyway as supporters of the amendment register voters for their cause. Phil Burress, whose Cincinnati-based Citizens for Community Values organization is the driving force for the amendment, estimates it has produced 40,000 registrations.
Lori Viars, a mother of two in Warren County, is both volunteering for the Bush campaign and collecting signatures to get the same-sex marriage ban on the ballot. "I'm 43, and I honestly think this is the most important election of my life," she says. "The next president will probably choose up to four Supreme Court justices."
In Butler County, the Yorks are taking a break this week to watch the Republican convention. Then they'll be back to the streets, and to the Tri- County Baptist church. Once again, Frank will post his simple "Register to Vote" sign at the reception desk. He doesn't urge a vote for Mr. Bush, because a partisan operation would jeopardize the church's tax-exempt status. Pastor Lew Davis reminds congregants from the pulpit to register but doesn't endorse anyone. He readily identifies himself as a Republican in a conversation after services.
In addition to giving the Republican Party the filled-in registration forms they collect, Mr. and Mrs. York also hand over the names of those who are undecided about Mr. Bush for follow-up. Most hesitate over the war in Iraq, the Yorks say. "I said to this one young man, 'You know what your values are. Those will guide you,' " Mrs. York recalls. "He's going to come over."
Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes at wsj.com and John Harwood at john.harwood at wsj.com