On Mon, 30 Aug 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
> > Independent voters sided with Kerry 5 to 1.
>
> But even if the strategy only convinces, say, 1 out of 5, it's a net gain.
How you figure? If Bush doesn't get more than 20% of the indendents, he's sunk. That would be a historical low for an incumbent.
On Mon, 30 Aug 2004, Nathan Newman wrote:
> This isn't the first time Kerry has faced these kinds of attacks and the
> pattern seems to be he takes the hits, then brings in supporters that
> strengthen him in the end.
Very true. It played a very big role in his maiden Senate campaign in 1984 against James Shannon. Shannon accused him of flip-flopping on Vietnam (I believe he used that very phrase, "flip-flop"). He said if he was really that much against the war, he shouldn't have gone. (These were obviously very different times, and Shannon was a liberal fighting for a liberal state). Kerry crushed him in the next debate with a gotcha line that roused all veterans in the state against Shannon, even those who had hated Kerry and whose memories we're at that time much fresher.
I sometimes wonder if this isn't Kerry's strategy again. He always seems to fight the same campaign. He always has the same plodding campaign style, he's always criticized for not having enough fire, and he always finishes with a huge late surge. I've been wondering why, and it occurs to me it might be because of debates, which happen late in the campaign. Because Kerry is so wooden, expectations are low and he exceeds them. He is clearly much more comfortable on his feet impromptu than he is giving canned speeches, which seems to account for why people who meet him seem to give glowing reports so much at odds with those of us who only seeing him giving speeches see. I was struck that he was a much better interviewee on Jon Stewart than Clinton was.
So sometimes I think Kerry wants to keep this alive, and that he's building up an arsenal of perfect gotcha lines, knowing that if Bush things this is his achilles' hell, he'll mention it in the debate and give him the opening to use one. And a good gotcha has a lot to work with when it comes to turning Veterans against Bush, because ultimately they all know Kerry fought and Bush ran. And that Bush never goes to funerals, cuts their benefits, and uses them for his own political ends -- all things veterans hate.
Michael
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"I'm an optimist because it's intellectually more challenging"