>On Mon, 30 Aug 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>> > Independent voters sided with Kerry 5 to 1.
>>
>>But even if the strategy only convinces, say, 1 out of 5, it's a net gain.
>
>How you figure? If Bush doesn't get more than 20% of the
>indendents, he's sunk. That would be a historical low for an
>incumbent.
Perhaps my wording was too telegraphic. If it convinces more people than it alienates - not an impossibility - then it's a net gain. Not the winning margin necessarily, but it could add votes to the Bush column while keeping Kerry on the defensive, unable to make any points of his own.
Doug