Tuesday, December 21, 2004
Sudden shock to N Korea regime could spell chaos
By Linda Sieg
According to analysts, the view that a gradual ‘regime transformation’ is more desirable than an abrupt ‘regime change’ seems to have gained backers in Washington
A lone assassin’s bullet, a coup by elite cadres, or a gradual process of reform and transition: scenarios for political change in autocratic North Korea abound.
Rumours are swirling that 62-year-old North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s grip on power is weakening, but few experts are willing to predict precisely how or when his regime might unravel. Many agree, though, that a sudden shock to Kim’s autocratic regime would be more likely to create chaos than yield an orderly transfer of power to a benign ruler willing to abandon nuclear arms and missile programmes.
“If we take the long view, the collapse of North Korea’s system has already begun,” said Masao Okonogi, a Korea specialist at Keio University in Tokyo.
“The question is, how will the ending be played out?” “The transformation needs to happen before Kim hands over to a successor and (other countries) need to push for that, but it is not that easy. There could be a crisis or serious confusion.”
The view that a gradual “regime transformation” is more desirable than an abrupt “regime change” seems to have gained backers in Washington, Okonogi and other analysts in Tokyo said.
US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly told Japan’s Asahi Shimbun newspaper that President George W Bush was not seeking to topple Kim’s administration, but instead was urging it to open up gradually to lay the groundwork for “regime transformation”, the newspaper reported at the weekend. US national security adviser Condoleezza Rice’s designated successor, Stephen Hadley, made similar remarks to South Korean lawmakers, South Korean media reported this month.
“It seems they have begun to think that ‘regime change’ is not that easy,” Okonogi said.
Shock treatment or reform: To be sure, talk of “regime change” persists among US hardliners and the notion has recently been floated in Japan, where anger over Pyongyang’s failure to clarify the fate of citizens abducted decades ago has boosted calls for sanctions.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is cautious about imposing economic sanctions for fear of thwarting efforts to resume six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear programmes involving the two Koreas, Japan, China, Russia and the United States.
But ruling Liberal Democratic Party executive Shinzo Abe has mentioned regime change as an option and Tsutomu Takebe, the party’s number two, said this month Japan should consider “emancipating” North Koreans from the regime.
“I think what Takebe was probably talking about was to contain them from the outside and promote internal collapse,” said Noriyuki Suzuki, a senior analyst at Radiopress, which monitors North Korean media. “If the domestic economy deteriorated, then anti-Kim forces might emerge.”
Proponents of “regime transformation” favour an opposite approach to achieve a similar end but without triggering the chaos, civil war and floods of refugees that would threaten neighbouring China, South Korea and Japan. “What they are thinking of is that by promoting economic reforms in North Korea, a more open system will emerge,” Suzuki said.
Internal forces: Tentative economic reforms are already underway, but how quickly momentum for change might gather force is hard to say.
“I think interesting changes now are probably starting, both politically and economically, but we still need time to see,” said Zhu Feng, an international relations expert at Peking University. “The country is very unique, very weird ... changes are occurring there, but the problem is: at what pace?”
Moves to topple Kim would likely spring from within his regime given the absence of an organised domestic opposition, although no one can rule out assassination by an individual.
“We mostly hear about conflict surrounding the succession issue but I think it’s pretty clear to us that there are elements within the regime that are against the regime,” said Do Hee-youn, secretary general of a North Korea activist group in Seoul, who said the country is undergoing a “period of laxness” in power.
“Under this kind of situation, those elements against the regime could look for an opportunity to mount their assault.”
In a hint of the possible confusion ahead, Yonhap news agency said on Sunday Austrian security forces had foiled an attempt to assassinate one of Kim’s sons during a European trip in November. The South Korean news agency said the plot had been planned by North Koreans favouring another son as Kim successor.
Cho Min, an analyst at the South Korean government-affiliated Korea Institute for National Unification, said a revolt could erupt from within elite ruling ranks. “The change is likely to come from a high level and once it happens it’s going to move very quickly,” Cho said.
reuters
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