Friday, December 24, 2004
WIDE ANGLE
A ghost election for Iraq
Saed Naqvi
The only Indian journalist to have visited Iraq in recent weeks, Mohammad Ahmad Kuzmi, has just returned with fascinating insights. Like the invasion, occupation, abrupt emergence of Iyad Allawi as the interim prime minister, singularly lacking in legitimacy, the elections announced for January 30, 2005, will be "rammed" through "somehow", "regardless of the hopeless law and order situation and continuing bloodshed."
What does "somehow" entail? Well, how was the interim Iraqi government formed? In the absence of a UN mandate, Lakhdar Brahimi materialised in Baghdad's Green Zone, handpicked a group with Allawi as premier. Paul Bremer, the US viceroy, handed the baton to Allawi in front of a few TV cameras in the Green Zone and disappeared. He then appeared in the UN Security Council alongside Hoshiar Zebari, as the so-called foreign minister. No one knows how the Allawi government ever came into being, the only legitimacy deriving from a series of appearances on western TV by both, Allawi ad Zeberi.
Likewise, cameras will be positioned in the Green Zone, some clapping and thumping of tables will bring into being the 275 member assembly. The polls will be declared as having taken place. This degree of cynicism Kazmi noted is widespread in what the media has been describing as the Sunni triangle. In the Shia south, the mood is different. Under the guidance of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani the Shias have decided to participate in the polls. Does this, given the brutality in Fallujah, distance the Shias from the Sunnis? The Kurds in the north are already quite comfortably off. Jalal Talebani and Masood Barzani have 55 members each in the 110 member parliament in Arabil. The interim constitution for Iraq, drafted by heaven know who, gives Kurdistan a vast swathe of territory, including Diyala, near Baghdad, and bestows on Iraq two national languages - Arabic and Kurdish. If this constitution is to be seen as an indicator of western intentions the intellectuals in Baghdad and Najaf are quite clear what these intentions are. Kazmi spoke to university teachers in Baghdad and representatives of Madrasas in Najaf and Karbala. Clearly, the West would be comfortable with two non-Arab quantities in the Middle-East: Israel and Kurdistan. An independent Kurdistan is not on the cards but a separate Kurdish personality will be promoted within the federal system. This the Iraqis know. Naturally, this raises hackles in Turkey which at the moment is looking at the carrot that has been dangled before it of possible entry into Europe. The proposition has so many conditions attached to it that Ankara is in a tizzy. The Kurdish question is a live issue in Iran and Syria as well.
In March, I was in Iraq along with Kazmi. The situation on the ground has changed since. Six months ago, the resistance against American occupation was only Iraqi. Being an Indian was a clear advantage in Baghdad. It was this "Indianness" of the four truck drivers held hostage last summer which ultimately resulted in their safe return. Kazmi's experience this time was different. To be able to travel to Samara and Karbala, Kazmi joined a group of Pakistani pilgrims. His bus was stopped near Latifiya, between Baghdad and Karbala. A big, burly man, who reportedly looked like an Al-Qaeda caricature, politely asked: "Any Indians in the bus?" The man then allowed the bus to proceed when he was told that it was a "Pakistani" group.
The resistance is clearly being infiltrated by "outside" elements. Iraqis would have seen any Indian as a friend. The Islamist infiltrators are making stark distinction between Muslims and non-Muslims. Kazmi's minders found it safer to lump him with pilgrims from an Islamic state. This episode, however minor, would have been unthinkable in Iraq even a few months ago. In fact the road to Karbala from Baghdad is now seldom without incident. In Najaf and Karbala bodies are brought in regularly - mostly of Shias who have been stopped in Latifiya or Nasiriya looted and killed. According to insiders, in the offices of Ayatollah Karbalai in Karbala and Sistani in Najaf, these killings have acquired a pattern. For instance, if two Shias are stopped in Latifiya, one is killed and the other allowed to go with the message: don't participate in the coming elections.
The edict from Sistani's office on the other hand is: do not react. Even after the car bomb explosions in Najaf and Karbala last week, the ayatollahs prohibited any "retaliation". Sistani's logic is that an effort to create sectarian violence cannot be an Iraqi plot: the instigators are "outsiders". A list of 275 candidates is being prepared under his guidance. A group of six scholars, drawn from various regions of Iraq, has been entrusted with the task of vetting the list, ensuring that all Kurd, Sunni and Shia groups are represented. The identity of the group is secret to insulate them from pressures.
This preparation must not be mistaken for any real faith in the elections that are to follow. The list is being prepared to thwart any sleight of hands to pack the assembly with "hand picked agents" of the occupiers. Earnest pursuit of the electoral route is accompanied by a total awareness that the elections are likely to be a bizarre exercise. Every voter in Iraq will be required to approve the entire list of 275, vetted by community leaders. Moreover, the deteriorating law and order situation places a huge question mark on the feasibility of elections other than ones held in the security of the Green Zone, for the consumption of the media.
© 2004: Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.