Ok, fellow LBO'ers, I've been wanting to put the question to this list: What are the chances Bush will be re-elected in '04. Mind you, let's not get caught up in unlikely hypotheticals; but, what do people think is the most likely outcome of Bush's re-election bid.
Having asked the question, this is what I think. 1) People on the left have consistently underestimated Shrub, with 2002 being a prime example. 2) The Dems look better now than they will in the fall because of the contested Dem primaries (nightly news shows only Dems) while the Repubs' are not contested, of course. 3) The capture of Saddam is a big plus for Shrub, while the daily body count is a negative. 4) While job loss is a big negative for Shrub, GDP, productivity, profits and personal wealth will all be up a lot by November, not to mention consumer confidence. 5) Bush is the incumbent and unlike the Dems, Repubs just don't seem to be as good at dropping the ball like Bore (excuse, Gore) did.
If you thought I was setting the stage to say that I think Bush will probably win, you'd be right. Sure, the Dems will fight the good fight, but then loyally fall on their swords (like they always do, after all that's what Dems are for.) My biggest fear is that Greens and other progressives get snookered into the "everything to beat Bush" mantra, only to see Shrub win anyway. I don't care to get my tugboat hitched to a sinking ship, thank-you. I'd rather go all out and work for the Green Presidential nominee.
So, what do you all say?
-- Chuck Green From Ann Arbor, MI
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