[lbo-talk] Counter-Insurgency (LBO-Talk = Outliers)

[Stephen E Philion]

Seth asked, 
Let me ask you a few questions. In about two days of nonviolent
demonstrations last month, Sistani and his forces accomplished what the
armed resistance failed to do in months of blowing stuff up: They 
forced the US to scrap its plans for choosing a new Iraqi government. 
Doesn't that alter your assessment of the effectiveness of armed 
struggle in this situation?

--Sistani could not have done any of that if there were not an average 
of 1 US soldier killed and numerous wounded seriously every day since 
the beginning of the occupation.  Sistani works with the same 
bargaining chip MLK worked with, the threat of worse to come if they 
don't work out something with him.
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Sistani insists only an elected government
should be allowed to sign a status-of-forces agreement with the USA. 
The US may be forced to cave on that too. Under that scenario, a year 
from now, Iraq will have a democratically elected government and 
independence from the US. None of this is guaranteed, the US is liable 
to try all sorts of tricks, but that's the direction things are heading 
in and Sistani has enormous leverage. So why is armed struggle 
necessary, unless you're fighting for Sunni dominance as opposed to 
national independence?

--bargaining power? 

steve