[lbo-talk] US economy: a Japanese view

Dwayne Monroe idoru345 at yahoo.com
Thu Feb 19 09:05:22 PST 2004


Alexandre Fenelon posted:

http://www.asahi.com/english/opinion/TKY200402180127.html

from which...

In this trans-Pacific macroeconomic picture, Japan and the other Asian nations appear to be behaving like innocent merchants willing to sell on credit as much as their customers want. This framework has persisted for the past three decades or so, ever since the United States began to float the dollar in the currency market.

Sensible persons even without business expertise know the ultimate consequences of such relations between merchants and customers.

==================================

An interesting essay which reminds me of the ideas expressed by the late Akito Morita in a 1990 work, "The Japan That Can Say No" -

http://home.earthlink.net/~rufusis/japanno/

The work is somewhat dated, events have moved on. Still, the core notion - Japan and the other major Asian players have leverage over the US they refrain from using due to a misunderstanding of the balance of economic power - remains a strongly held idea in certain circles of Japanese (and, we can guess, Chinese, Taiwanese and South Korean) thought.

Susumu Saito's concluding metaphor, comparing the US and its Asian trading partners to an over-spending customer and a too-forgiving merchant, is one which has occured to me (and others I'm sure) for years.

Saito (and Morita before him) may be overstating the case; I'm sure there's an army of economists who are ready to explain why and how the US remains impervious to any pressure from Asia. Time will tell.

I think it's undeniable the US has, in a sense, been enjoying the friendly credit terms of a super-massive Japanese issued credit card.

Nothing lasts forever so it's a certainty this arrangement will end sooner or later.

Will the adjustment be severely unpleasant, or a smooth transition?

DRM

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