[lbo-talk] Mackerras's Law

Grant Lee grantlee at iinet.net.au
Fri Jul 2 22:28:31 PDT 2004


Mackerras's Law, named for a conservative, but usually reliable, Australian quantitive political scientist, is:

"The party that loses the 'unlosable' election wins the next one, under a different leader."

I don't know if Malcom Mackerras has actually applied this law to the US presidential election, or if it should be applied to a presidential system. (Maybe the 2000 election was never considered "unlosable" for Gore?)

Nevertheless, Mackerras's prediction in February that Kerry will win, with a "landslide" swing of 1.9%, appears to have caused some enoyable angst at FreeRepublic: http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1080540/posts

e.g.

If a foreign pundit makes a dumb prediction and no one listens, does it make a sound?

1 posted on 02/18/2004 9:00:24 AM PST by GiveEmDubya [ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies ]

To: GiveEmDubya A prime example of how political partisans are liable to believe their own propaganda.

2 posted on 02/18/2004 9:02:12 AM PST by Seruzawa (If you agree with the French raise your hand. If you are French raise both hands.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: GiveEmDubya Kerry is first going to have to get by the one that calls himself "A Regular Guy".

3 posted on 02/18/2004 9:04:20 AM PST by Semper Paratus [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: GiveEmDubya Pure flatulence; nothing but hot air, stinking of ignorance and liberalism.

4 posted on 02/18/2004 9:04:34 AM PST by theDentist (Boston: So much Liberty, you can buy a Politician already owned by someone else.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]

To: theDentist I was awestricken when I saw it. I would have laughed if you told me Kerry would get 290-300 electoral votes at this point, but OVER 300...when half the country doesn't have a clue who he is.

Unbelievable filth. Maybe he should stick to Australian politics.

[etc. etc.]



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