[lbo-talk] this minute's poll results

John Lacny jlacny at earthlink.net
Fri Jul 30 15:53:06 PDT 2004


All of this is more or less irrelevant, since it's the elections in the states that will count. The best poll compilations I've seen thus far are at this website:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

This uses all of the various polls and breaks things down by state. Right now, Kerry is ahead 289-232, though that's rather meaningless since some of the states listed are effectively neck-in-neck. So the poll counts Tennessee (!) as a Kerry state though Kerry is ahead there by two percentage points -- really a statistical tie, although the poll in question is dated July 23. And while the fact that Tennessee -- and Arkansas, where Bush is ahead by two points, and it's really statistically tied -- is competitive for Kerry is good news, keep in mind that recent polls also showed Minnesota and Iowa as exactly tied, though both of these "battleground states" went for Gore last time.

Most of these polls were taken before the convention, so they don't yet show the "bounce," if any, with the exception of West Virginia, which slightly swung into the Kerry column for the first time since mid-June in a poll taken two days ago.

If you look at the background stuff with trends, some of the changes look deceptively dramatic. What really happened some time last month is that Kerry lost his lead in Florida and Ohio, but while Bush has consistently polled a very slight edge in those two states for a month or so, they're really effectivley tied, and flipping back and forth. It seems at this point that the election really hinges on Ohio.

Except that in some of the states that have been consistently polling for one candidate or the other, the margins have been small enough that they may end up being competitive as well. This includes Pennsylvania and Michigan for Kerry, and Virginia and the Carolinas for Bush. Among others.

In other words, it's far too close to predict.

- - - - - John Lacny http://www.johnlacny.com

People of the US, unite and defeat the Bush regime and all its running dogs!



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