>I don't see people predisposed to Shrub changing their minds. For
>them, four more years of Shrub is way better than four more years of
>Kerry. It's the fuck you "spite" vote mentioned in that article Carl
>sent. I also don't see marginal voters getting terribly fired up
>about Shrub, not enough to vote him out of office.
I can go either way on this - just can't make up my mind. Here's something from Ruy Teixeira's latest.
Doug
----
Independent Voters and the Bush Presidency
William Schneider, "Super-Charged Electorate," National Journal, June 3, 2004
Jeffrey M. Jones, "Bush Ratings Show Historical Levels of Polarization," Gallup Organization, June 4, 2004 <http://en.groundspring.org/en/go?j=3762148&u=14657>
Gallup has put out an interesting new analysis discussing the high levels of partisan polarization in views of Bush. In the most recent Gallup poll, 89 percent of Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing as president, compared to just 12 percent of Democrats who approve. That 77 point gap is the highest of Bush's presidency.
Moreover, the strength of partisan approval and disapproval is striking. Among Republicans, 64 percent strongly approve of Bush's performance and, among Democrats, 66 percent strongly disapprove.
These are impressive figures, but for my money the most interesting data in the Gallup analysis are actually about independents. The analysis includes a chart of Bush approval by Democrats, Republicans, and independents that shows that, starting in early May, Bush's approval rating among independents dropped to 40 percent and stayed there.
That drop, if not reversed, may well prove to be the death knell of Bush's presidency. I just don't see how Bush can pull it out if he's running at only 40 percent approval among independents; the close relationship between approval and voting support would imply a healthy Bush deficit among independents on election day which, in turn, would make it highly unlikely that Bush could win (keep in mind that Bush actually carried independents by two points in 2000 and still lost the popular vote).
Note also the structure of Bush's approval rating among independents. His 40 percent approval rating only includes 16 percent who strongly approve of his performance. But, among the 55 percent who disapprove of his performance, 41 percent strongly disapprove.
So Bush has independents fired up. Trouble for him is, it's the wrong way: they're fired up against him. Maybe that's part of the reason why the Bush campaign seems to be concentrating on mobilizing their base; they're hoping they can bring out those voters in droves and swamp the negative trend among independents.
But that's probably not going to work either. According to figures cited by William Schneider in the National Journal, independents are following this year's campaign with unusual intensity-not far removed, in fact, from the intensity with which Democratic and Republican partisans are following the race, which is, in turn, unusually high by historical standards.
Alas for Bush, this may turn out to be the election where everyone shows up. And, if that's the case, it is likely to be the Republican base that gets swamped, not the other way around.