>>I don't see people predisposed to Shrub changing their minds. For
>>them, four more years of Shrub is way better than four more years of
>>Kerry. It's the fuck you "spite" vote mentioned in that article Carl
>>sent. I also don't see marginal voters getting terribly fired up
>>about Shrub, not enough to vote him out of office.
>
>
I can go either way on this - just can't make up my mind. Here's something from Ruy Teixeira's latest.
Doug
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Independent Voters and the Bush Presidency
<snip> Gallup has put out an interesting new analysis discussing the high levels of partisan polarization in views of Bush. <snip> ... for my money the most interesting data in the Gallup analysis are actually about independents. The analysis includes a chart of Bush approval by Democrats, Republicans, and independents that shows that, starting in early May, Bush's approval rating among independents dropped to 40 percent and stayed there.
That drop, if not reversed, may well prove to be the death knell of Bush's presidency. <snip>
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Consider also the two recent elections to fill Congressional vacancies. Stephanie Herseth's recent victory in South Dakota got more press, but Ben Chandler's Kentucky win back in February was pretty remarkable. That was in a conservative, rural district that Bush carried in 2000 by 13%, in a border state. Chandler won going away, by almost the same margin--a tremendous swing. Moreover, his opponent ran as a died-in-the-wool Bush supporter. Spending was about evenly matched when you include expenditures by the national party committees.
Jacob Conrad