[lbo-talk] Red, Purple and Blue

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Wed Mar 10 10:47:51 PST 2004


On Wed, 10 Mar 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:


> Don't forget this bit from Gallup:
>
> >When Ralph Nader is included in the hypothetical matchup, the
> >consumer activist takes votes away from Kerry, but not from Bush.
> >Among registered voters, Kerry receives 47% support, Bush 45%, and
> >Nader 5% -- a three-point decline for Kerry with Nader in the race,
> >but no decline for Bush.

True, but placing the emphasis on "registered" (as opposed to "likely") in the above passage, Gallup continues:

<quote>

Among likely voters, Kerry gets 50% support, Bush 44%, and Nader just

2% -- a two-point decline for Kerry, no decline for Bush.

Support for Candidates Among Likely Voters

Compared by Whether Nader Is Included

The "likely voter" model suggests that Nader will draw far less

support among people who actually turn out to vote than among the

larger population of registered voters nationwide. Indeed, younger

voters and political independents were among the groups most likely to

support Nader in 2000, as well as among the groups with the lowest

turnout rates.

<unquote>

The net effect is still negative to Kerry, but when likely voters are considered, the gap between Kerry and Bush triples.

I wonder if the Republicans have considered organizing an attempt to funnel money to Nader through his internet site?

Michael



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