[lbo-talk] Red, Purple and Blue

[Shane Mage]

>On Wed, 10 Mar 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>>  Don't forget this bit from Gallup:
>>
>>  >When Ralph Nader is included in the hypothetical matchup, the
>>  >consumer activist takes votes away from Kerry, but not from Bush.
>>  >Among registered voters, Kerry receives 47% support, Bush 45%, and
>>  >Nader 5% -- a three-point decline for Kerry with Nader in the race,
>>  >but no decline for Bush.
>
>True, but placing the emphasis on "registered" (as opposed to "likely") in
>the above passage, Gallup continues:
>
><quote>
>
>    Among likely voters, Kerry gets 50% support, Bush 44%, and Nader just
>    2% -- a two-point decline for Kerry, no decline for Bush.

This is a remarkable result.  Nader gets 5% of *registered*
voters, but only 2% of the--significantly smaller--number
of "likely" voters.  This means that some *4 million* voters
would support Nader if they voted but would almost
certainly not vote at all if their only choice were between the
Dumbocrat and Republicon candidates!  Since, as Doug rightly
insists, the Nader voters overwhelmingly regard Kerry as
a lesser evil to Bush, their votes, if cast, would be expected to go 
just as overwhelmingly to anti-Bush candidates for House and
Senate.  That many votes  should be more than enough to reverse the
present control of both houses of Congress.  So when the CPUSA
and its lac[n]ies say that "a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush,"
the answer is "a vote against Nader is a vote for Hastert and Frist!"

Shane Mage

"When we read on a printed page the doctrine of Pythagoras that all 
things are made of numbers, it seems mystical, mystifying, even 
downright silly.

When we read on a computer screen the doctrine of Pythagoras that all 
things are made of numbers, it seems self-evidently true."  (N. 
Weiner)