By Keith B. Richburg Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, March 14, 2004; 6:29 PM
MADRID, March 14 -- Casting their ballots against the bloody backdrop of the worst terrorist attacks in this country's history, Spaniards voted Sunday to oust the ruling Popular Party of outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, blaming his staunch backing of the American war in Iraq for the bombings that left 200 people dead.
In a stunning political upset, voters chose to give power to the opposition Socialist Party, whose leader, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, has promised to immediately withdraw Spain's 1,300 troops from Iraq, orient Spain's foreign policy away from the United States and restore good relations with anti-war European allies, France and Germany.
Near-complete returns showed the Socialists winning about 42.7 percent of the vote, and taking 164 seats in the next parliament, compared with 37.7 percent, and 148 seats, for the Popular Party. The results would leave the Socialists short of an absolute majority, but they can rule easily by forming a coalition with smaller regional parties. Turnout was reported high.
While Aznar was stepping down after eight years as prime minister, the results represented a bitter personal blow, as he was hoping to hand over power to his handpicked successor, Mariano Rajoy, who had promised to continue Aznar's pro-American foreign policy. Polls taken before the bombing attacks had shown Rajoy and the Popular Party comfortably ahead of the Socialists, as controversy over the Iraq war, deeply unpopular here, receded as a major issue, with more voters focused on Spain's robust economy.
But the Popular Party suffered after a series of coordinated bomb blasts ripped through four crowded commuter trains at rush hour Thursday morning, and government officials immediately blamed the violent Basque separatist group known as ETA -- while ignoring the possibility that the attacks might have been carried out by Islamic extremists linked to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. As mounting evidence pointed to Islamic extremists, not ETA, Spaniards angrily blamed the government for withholding the information to avoid a popular backlash against its unpopular involvement in Iraq.
The government conceded defeat at 10:30 P.M., just 2 1/2 hours after the polls closed and after exit polls and early official returns showed the Popular Party trailing badly. Government officials and spokesman promised to work with the new government for a smooth transition.
"The Popular Party accepts the result of the ballot," said Rajoy, speaking to supporters with Aznar at his side. Referring to the tumult of the last 72 hours, Rajoy added, "The Spanish people have eloquently shown that they can behave with civility, and this has been a tribute to the memory of those who have fallen."
At Socialist Party headquarters, celebrations at the unexpected victory were subdued, supplanted by memories of the 200 who died and the 1,400 wounded in the train attacks. Zapatero called for a minute of silence for the victims, and then said, "Today, the Spanish people have spoken, with a massive turnout. They have said they want a government of change."
"My immediate priority will be to combat all kinds of terrorism," Zapatero said. "The terrorists must know that they will confront all of us together. We will win."
Among government officials and supporters, there was bitterness at the notion that by stoking popular fears, the attackers who planted the bombs may have altered the result of a European election, and could force a staunch American ally to shift its foreign policy.
"The terrorists have killed 200 people and defeated the government -- they have achieved all their objectives," said Gustavo de Arustegui, a PP member of parliament and foreign policy spokesman for the government. "I think the terrorist attacks were politically planned," he said. "We have transformed terrorists into political actors with this."
In a videotape discovered in a parking lot trash container late Saturday, a man calling himself Abu Dujan Al Afgani, the self-described head of al Qaeda's military wing in Europe, said Thursday's train attacks were "a response to your collaboration with the criminal Bush and his allies," according to a transcripts released by the Interior Ministry. The speaker on the videotape also warned, "If you do not stop your collaboration, more and more blood will flow."
The Popular Party's loss here deprives the Bush administration of one of its most solid allies in Europe. Aznar has been a frequent visitor to the White House and to the president's ranch at Crawford, Tex. He has often found himself sharply at odds with other leaders in Europe, particularly over the Iraq War, when he chose to ally himself with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian premier.
Aznar's embrace of the Bush administration's policies in Europe helped raise Spain's international profile, and his supporters said Spain, under Aznar, had once again become a major player on the world stage. But anti-American sentiment runs deep in Spain, and Aznar's closeness to Bush -- and his decision to send Spanish troops to Iraq -- became a political liability. Tens of thousands of Spaniards took to the streets to protest the Iraq War, and polls last year showed 90 percent of the people here opposed to the war.
The Popular Party today appeared to suffer from two separate, if related, fallouts from the terrorist attacks of last Thursday. First was a sense that the government was not fully forthcoming with all the information it had. And, secondly, as the al Qaeda link became clearer, there was a sense of outrage that Aznar's pro-American policies and dispatch of troops to Iraq had put Spain in the firing line of Islamic extremists seeking reprisals.
"I think the attacks woke up the Spanish people, who did not want to join the war in Iraq," said Maria Requeme, 27, who works as a debt collector. She said she had long ago decided to support the Socialists, but knows others who only switched their votes in the last days.
Another Socialist voter, Daniel Rincon, 21, who works part time for a mobile telephone company, said he initially considered voting for a smaller leftwing party, "but after the attack, getting the PP out became the top priority."
The Popular Party was also hurt by the estimated 2 million young Spaniards voting for the first time, since they were too young to participate four years ago. "I voted for change," said one first-time voter, journalism student Cristina Algema. "After the attacks, I had to contribute to kicking out the PP."
A sign of the government's pending defeat came early in the day; when Aznar and Rajoy showed up separately at their respective polling places to vote, they were met with hecklers who shouted "Liar!" and "Murderer!"
The Popular Party's fall came most dramatically in Spain's autonomous regions, in Catalonia and also in the Basque region. In Catalonia, the Popular Party lost half the votes it won four years ago, and the small Republic Party of Catalonia, or ERC, increased dramatically from one seat to eight in the incoming parliament.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, speaking before the results, said the attacks would not necessarily cause a change in Spain's policies toward the United States. "I don't think the case has been made that this will cause Spain to step back from the war on terrorism," Powell told ABC's "This Week."