> As Gallup pointed out the other day, no president with an approval
> rating below 50% at this time in an election year has been re-elected,
> and most of those who were had ratings much higher. Bush is right
> around 50%, which suggests the race could be very tight. A landslide
> looks very unlikely.
If we go by past elections, yes. But Kerry could very well sink quite a bit between now and the Democratic convention. He needs to make himself really attractive to combat Bush's folksy, terrorist-fighting, returning-tax-money-to-your-pockets image, or a lot of voters could sour on him and snuggle up to the Shrub. People say he's no Dukakis or Carter or Mondale, etc., but unfortunately there are a lot of ways Democratic presidential candidates can be repulsive to the public. For some reason, a lot of voters are much more willing to vote for local Democratic candidates, up to the Congressional level, than they are for a Democratic president. They just seem to like Republicans in the White House.
Some pundits have already raised the question of what might happen if it becomes clear by the Democratic convention that Kerry just won't cut it with the public. Could delegates pledged to Kerry bolt and turn the convention into an open one, looking for a more sellable face? And could such a search begin even before the convention -- opening up, in effect, an unofficial "second primary campaign"? And who could they find for a Kerry substitute? This would be a really wild ride in an election year that is already looking pretty roller-coaster-like.
Jon Johanning // jjohanning at igc.org __________________________________ Had I been present at the Creation, I would have given some useful hints for the better ordering of the universe. -- Attr. to Alfonso the Wise, King of Castile