>On Mon, 29 Mar 2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>> mike larkin wrote:
>>
>> >If the job market improves even modestly, I'd say Bush is in.
>>
>> It probably will, barring a sudden reversal. Too many leading
>> indicators are looking up.
>>
>> Doug
>
>C'mon, Doug, you said that about a year ago, didn't you?
A year ago, we were losing about 90,000 jobs a month; now we're gaining about 40,000. That still sucks, but it's a swing of +150,000. If we get a string of 100,000 plus months in the next few reports, Bush will probably get re-elected.
> I don't
>wanna be gloomy, but the economy still sucks for working people.
It does, no doubt about it. But perceptions are formed by the direction of change at least as much by levels. If the job market looks to be improving over spring & summer, the Dems will lose it as an issue (unless they start talking about structural issues, like low wages and disappearing benefits, but that's risky, so they probably won't).
Doug