On Tue, 30 Mar 2004, mike larkin wrote:
> Anyone got an explanation for this? I'm ready to go back on the Prozac.
Here's one explanation from the Slate newsletter Today's Papers:
<excerpt>
USA Today leads with a poll that has President Bush ahead of Senator Kerry 49 percent to 45 percent with Ralph Nader at 4 percent. The poll claims that in 17 battleground states where Bush has launched an ad barrage, Kerry went from a 28 point lead to 6 points behind.
<end excerpt>
In other words, the polls changed because only one side has been campaigning this week. Kerry has been on vacation for the last ten days, first skiing and now recovering from an operation.
But the I think main tonic for your nerves is: don't take early polls so seriously, and especially not week to week swings in early polls. The main outlines are all that matters now: that it's an open race.
I think the Clarke stuff will matter in the long run. It's knocking out Bush's main plank. People in the center are still confused by the counterbarrage; it will take a while for it to sink in they've really got nothing to refute him with. If if Bush can't bang that drum without fear of injuring himself, he hasn't got much else. If 9/11 ceases to be a plus for him, having scheduled the latest convention on record and holding it in New York might turn out to be a really dreadful campaign plan.
Michael