| Sure- but so what? The issue was whether Kerry was somehow in trouble.
-whether or not kerry is in trouble is basically irrelevant. there's a long -way to go to november. and no matter how kerry looks to you, he's up -against a very sordid and skilled republican party, combined with an -electorate that's so burdened by the national propaganda machine that the -election could go either way right up to the last.
Don't buy it. Kerry will win easily. We have a great grassroots movement building on the ground and Bush is losing credibility by the day. And Bush and his minions' skills are overrated-- yeah, they will throw crap, but crap will be thrown back at them.
>the party's right wing sabotaged the best chance to win the election
without
>running a third rate sellout when it got rid of Dean.
I liked Dean. I sent him money. But the rightwing didn't knock him out. He knocked himself out by getting into a mudslinging match with Gephardt in Iowa. It was a huge strategic mistake and then he compounded it by blowing all his money in New Hampshire, leaving him nothing to fight with afterwards.
Kerry won the nomination with good strategy and a surprisingly good organization. It was no juiced conspiracy on his behalf. Once he won the early rounds, the Dem establishment mobilized behind him, but that came from all parts of the Dem spectrum, due to the desire to move forward. The DLCers were actually pretty damn marginal. Their favorite candidate, Joe Lieberman, was completely trashed, shoing their lack of real influence.
nathan
----- Original Message ----- From: "Nathan Newman" <nathanne at nathannewman.org> To: <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org> Sent: Monday, May 03, 2004 8:51 AM Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] Kerry Struggling to Find a Theme, Democrats Fear
Why do you suddenly buy the NY TIMES analysis when it feeds your prejudice?
Kerry has raised $80 million from 400,000 different people- $34 million of it over the Internet. He's survived the largest barrage of negative political advertising in history from the Bush campaign (something like $50 million in ads in the last month), yet Bush hasn't been able to open up a lead.
Kerry is not the most dynamic speaker, no question, but he'll wear well with people over time. Unlike Gore, who I knew would annoy people so much he'd blow the election, Kerry will plod along, absorb Bush's attacks, then close hard at the end. That's been his pattern in tough races in Massachusetts-- notably when he dispatched Bill Weld-- and was his pattern in the Democratic nomination fight.
And if you want to see where the campaign is making inroads at the grassroots, don't watch the official Kerry campaign, watch the 527s run by the unions. Folks are so busy trashing Kerry that are missing the growth of the most massive grassroots Presidential campaign in history: See these articles:
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/03/22/State/Liberals_gleaning_Fla.shtml "By mid May, six months before Election Day, hundreds of full-time and part-time paid staffers will be spread across Florida mobilizing Democratic voters to beat President Bush. By several accounts, the ranks will grow to more than 1,000 by late June and continue swelling from there. Bypassing campaign finance restrictions on unlimited campaign donations to the national parties, the groups are aiming to raise more than $200-million to unseat the president. They're focusing mainly on Florida and a handful of other battleground states, such as Ohio and Missouri."
http://www.1199seiu.org/ourlocal/1199news/april2004/heroes.cfm "The Heroes program is one of the most ambitious political undertakings in the labor movement's history. 1199SEIU and its parent union, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), have recruited some 700 members and activists willing to put their lives on hold right now to work for a better tomorrow. Heroes will spend three to six months educating and registering voters, doing political action work and getting the message of change out in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, three of 15 crucial "battleground" states."
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040426&s=nichols "Through projects like the "Steel Canvas"--in which activists, many of them laid-off steelworkers, knock on doors with leaflets reading, "The Bush Administration sent my job overseas. What should I do now?"--ACT has already contacted 190,000 Ohioans and registered 36,000 new voters. And that's just the start. With a budget that is expected to reach $95 million, ACT has fifty organizers and 450 canvassers working in Ohio, which Bush carried only narrowly in 2000, and is replicating that level of activity in the sixteen other swing states that hold the balance in this year's contest between Bush and Democrat John Kerry. "
Nathan
----- Original Message ----- From: "Yoshie Furuhashi" <furuhashi.1 at osu.edu>
It appears that Democratic caucus and primary voters managed to pick the one candidate who may be capable of losing the election to Bush, _despite_ a high level of anti-incumbent sentiments and all the objective disadvantages for Bush like stagnant wages, high gas prices, and the costly and deadly occupation of Iraq. No wonder there are few pro-Kerry signs and stickers!
***** The New York Times, May 2, 2004 Kerry Struggling to Find a Theme, Democrats Fear By ADAM NAGOURNEY
WASHINGTON, May 1 - Two months after Senator John Kerry effectively captured the Democratic presidential nomination, party officials say his campaign is being regularly outmaneuvered by the White House as it struggles to find a focus and to make the transition from the primaries to the fight with President Bush.
Even while expressing confidence about Mr. Kerry's prospects, Democratic Party officials said they were concerned about what they described as his trouble in settling on a defining theme for his candidacy, the pace of his advertising and his progress in setting up field organizations in battleground states.
"George Bush has had three of the worst months of his presidency, but they are stuck and they've got to move past this moment," said Donna Brazile, who managed Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign.
While Ms. Brazile said she thought Mr. Kerry had the time, the political skill and the money to defeat what many Democrats described as a highly vulnerable president, she said, "This is a very crucial moment in the campaign."
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, one of Mr. Kerry's rivals for the nomination and a potential running mate, has told aides over the past two weeks that he is concerned by signs of trouble in Mr. Kerry's campaign, advisers said. Mr. Edwards disputed that characterization of his views in an interview on Saturday, saying he thought Mr. Kerry was running a "strong campaign."
In Ohio, the state that strategists for Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush view as perhaps the most critical battleground, Mr. Kerry has yet to hire a state director or open a campaign office. His operation is relying so far on the work of committees working independent of the Kerry campaign.
By contrast, Mr. Bush appointed an Ohio state director on Jan. 1, and opened a headquarters in Columbus, staffed by 13 people, three months ago, his aides said.
The Kerry campaign has yet to open its own full-fledged campaign "war room" - staffed with researchers, tacticians and press aides - to deal with Republican attacks and systematically marshal surrogates to make Mr. Kerry's case.
In one example of how this has hindered the operation, Mr. Kerry's aides fielded complaints from donors and party leaders this week when the candidate went on television to respond, in a contentious interview, to questions about his anti-Vietnam activities 30 years ago.
Mr. Bush's campaign opened its war room in early March, and it has pumped out a steady barrage of attacks and information about Mr. Kerry's record that Democrats said had blocked Mr. Kerry's attempt to make the election a referendum on Mr. Bush.
Mr. Kerry has yet to unveil a long-promised biographical advertisement highlighting his war record that Democrats urged him to broadcast as soon as possible as a rebuttal to Mr. Bush's $50 million crush of advertisements. Democrats outside the campaign blamed the ouster of a senior media adviser in March for the delay. . . .
For many Democrats, Mr. Kerry's single biggest difficulty was what they described as his continuing search for a defining theme for his candidacy - typically one of the most urgent tasks of any presidential candidate.
Last week, after completing the most in-depth poll of his campaign, Mr. Kerry unveiled yet another theme for his candidacy: "Together, we can build a stronger America." It was, by the count of one aide, the sixth message Mr. Kerry has rolled out since he announced his candidacy nearly 18 months ago.
"We need to be honest with ourselves: Our candidate is not one who's good with a 30-second sound bite," said Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. of Tennessee, co-chairman of Mr. Kerry's campaign. "He is very thoughtful and it takes him a while to say things." . . .
. . .[O]ther Democrats, even while cheered by polls showing that Mr. Bush appeared vulnerable, noted that Mr. Bush was moving aggressively to discredit Mr. Kerry now so that he would be diminished as a candidate by the fall campaign. They said that Mr. Kerry needed to fight that.
"What is the message today - where is the message discipline today?" said one senior Democratic official, who refused to speak by name about the campaign. "Why don't we have people in these 18 states?"
Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, a former Democratic chairman, said that Mr. Kerry could defeat Mr. Bush if he began laying out a serious case now. He said Mr. Kerry could not wait until the fall.
"If he hasn't established himself as a plausible alternative, people will have tuned out," Mr. Rendell said.
The growing pains reflect in part an organization that, aside from the two senior media consultants - Bob Shrum and Mike Donilon - has little experience in running presidential campaigns. Mr. Kerry's campaign has been hindered, some aides said, by a turnover in staff members and internal bickering, albeit nowhere near the level that occurred in the campaign last fall.
At a recent meeting of senior staff members, Democrats said, Mr. Kerry's aides became entangled in a lengthy debate over what might seem to be a less than urgent issue: whether they should send a Democratic operative to Bush rallies dressed as Pinocchio, a chicken or a mule, to illustrate various lines of attacks Democrats want to use against Mr. Bush. (They say they want to portray him as a liar, a draft avoider and stubborn.)
But more fundamentally, it underlines what many Democrats have long said has been Mr. Kerry's continuing difficulty this year to present a unifying theme for his candidacy.
In the primaries, Mr. Kerry's biography was his message, as he argued that his experience as a Vietnam veteran made him the strongest opponent to Mr. Bush. That argument for his election evaporated the moment the race ended, Democrats said, and Mr. Kerry has yet to adjust to the new electoral terrain. . . .
Mr. Bush began talking about himself as a "compassionate conservative" in his announcement of his candidacy 18 months before Election Day 2000. This time, Democrats said, Mr. Bush appears to have settled again on an early theme.
"Bush's message is clear," said Carter Eskew, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Gore. "His message is a steady leader and Kerry's a flip-flopper."
Mr. Kerry's predicament has been complicated by the fact that there was no lull after the primary battle. Instead, he faced the twin tasks of building a general election campaign apparatus and dealing with a White House that had spent a year raising money, investigating Mr. Kerry's record and hiring staff members to prepare for this moment.
The result, some Democrats said, has often been a mismatch. In an episode this week that distressed some of Mr. Kerry's strongest supporters, Mr. Kerry was put in a position where he appeared to be defending his Vietnam War record, in a dispute over whether he had thrown away medals in an antiwar protest.
"This Vietnam thing - I'm lost at how you can lose that," said one Democratic member of Congress, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "You go to Vietnam, you're carrying around shrapnel, and you're seen as somehow not telling the truth. I am scratching my head in bewilderment." . . .
<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/02/politics/campaign/02KERR.html> ***** -- Yoshie
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