>Glad to hear you reading Karl Rove's talking points. Kerry as waffler. Kerry
>as unprincipled.
My Republican insider friend says that the move to encourage republicans to convert to Kerry supporters was right from the horse's mouth: Rove. Mary Matalin, he says, was just giddy about the Kerry win. There were some news reports about these spontaneous Republican conversions to Kerry's cause. Rilly? Kerrybot? http://www.iht.com/articles/124980.html And, apparently, Democrats were concerned because AM radio talk show hosts were urging Republicans to vote in the Dem primaries in Iowa.
He writes: "73% of Bush's precinct captains from 2000 caucused with the Democrats in 2004. GOP team leaders were urged to caucus for Kerry. The PAC loosely affiliated with Karl Rove sent out canvassers to Iowa to urge Republicans to caucus for Kerry.
Republicans in New Hampshire were also urged to vote for Kerry. The PAC sent out absentee ballot requests to undeclareds asking them to consider voting for kerry. GOP team leader (in November) urged its New Hampshire leaders to go to the city clerks' offices and undeclare themselves, so they could vote in the primary. shades of Gray Davis...."
I suppose you can dismiss this as gossip-mongering and it may just be Rove and others on the Hill bragging, taking responsibility for something that they didn't do but are glad about. Apparently, they preferred to have Kerry as an opponent. They were afraid of Edwards and Dean. And so, it was Rove who helped launch campaigns attacking both those candidates, but especially Dean.
Why would this surprise anyone?
I thought this focus group research on swing voters was pretty telling. People like his message on the domestic scene for the most part. Notice how the negative image of Kerry as a flip flopper was biggest in Orlando, FL where Karl Rove is doing his thing to define Kerry negatively. Even so, responding to Bush's campaign message, the remained unenthusiatic about it. One person, below, points out how embarassing it is to be an American abroad. And that was a month ago:
Date: April 9, 2004 Findings from Recent Discussions with Voters
<...>
John Kerry
Even though he is a relative newcomer to the national scene, most participants had heard of John Kerry and held an opinion of him. Their knowledge of Kerry reflected a surface understanding and there was a lot of interest in learning more about him. Positive feelings about Kerry centered on his military service and caring about the middle class. People called him a "war hero," "Vietnam vet," and a "stand-up guy" who is intelligent and focused on the issues that matter to them.
He served in Vietnam. You know, he's won two, three stars. (Orlando, non- college educated men)
Yeah, he was on riverboats, that was tough in Vietnam. It means you went up in the little valleys and lagoons and got the hell shot out of you. My Captain on the ship was an ex-Vietnam Vet, that same type of duty. (Orlando, non-college educated men)
Standup guy. Followed through with his military service. (Columbus non-college educated women)
He says he's gonna keep jobs here. I like that. (Columbus, non-college educated men)
He seems to show more interest in what's happening in our country more than other people, I think. (Portland, college educated women)
He is a veteran so he understands I think what going to war you know the cost of it. (Portland, college educated men)
In addition to their positive feelings toward Kerry, participants also held clear and consistent doubts about the Democratic candidate, which have been heavily informed by the President and his re-election campaign. In fact, voters' language reflected the campaign's assertions as many people said Kerry "flip flops" on issues, is indecisive, and will raise taxes. This sentiment was especially strong in Orlando though it was evident throughout all the focus groups.
I heard that in the past he has voted for a lot of tax raises. (Orlando, non-college educated women)
Integrity, lack of decisiveness. I have no idea what his proposed policies are. (Orlando, non-college educated men)
You got that vote for the taxes, the gasoline hike and now he switched back here. So, okay, where is he really on the gas hike? (Columbus non-college educated women)
He will spend away money his term. Big government. Can't stay with his first choice on a bill, wishy washy. (Columbus, non-college educated men) Well, he flips back and forth it seems. Initially, he was supposedly for us going to Iraq and now he's screaming for us to get out of there. (Portland, college educated women)
He has the persona of being flip-flopping and changing his mind a lot. (Portland, college educated men)
There was no doubt among participants that if Kerry were elected, he would take the country in a different direction. Even though they expressed resounding dissatisfaction with the way we are currently headed, these swing voters were uncertain and held mixed views over whe ther they want to go in Kerry's direction.
It would be a different direction, but I don't know if it would be the right direction. I mean this is a hard choice going on. (Orlando, non-college educated men)
I am kind of afraid that he might completely back us out of Iraq. I mean if he backs us out and I'm not saying that I want people over there but like it would almost show how weak we are and it might invite even more problems than we are already having. (Columbus non-college educated women)
Maybe Kerry, being a little more intelligent and aware, will have more sense of what the rest of the world is thinking. The rest of the world thinks we are a bunch
of idiots right now, you know. You go anywhere outside of the United States and they are like, Bush, they hate Bush. And how does that serve the United States in the long run? It doesn't. (Portland, college educated women)
We pitted one of President Bush's core messages up against a Kerry message focused on a new direction that tackles our problems at home. Among these swing voters half who voted for Bush and half who voted for Gore in 2000 the Kerry message was the overwhelming choice. The Kerry message, preferred by two-thirds of the 54 participants:
John Kerry says, we need a new direction, to renew our country. That means a strong military and battling terrorists, but it also means starting to tackle our country's problems. Our go-it-alone foreign policy leaves US ta xpayers rebuilding Iraq alone, but we should be doing more about our own economy, education, health care and retirement. We should start with the economy. President Bush thinks it is great because the wealthiest are doing fine. But jobs are scarce, middle class incomes squeezed and health care costs skyrocketing. Bush's tax breaks reward companies relocating or outsourcing jobs abroad, but we should reward companies creating jobs in America. He's barred the government from negotiating lower drug prices and transferred billions of Medicare money to the insurance companies. Kerry says we should tackle America's problems -- middle class tax cuts, enforce trade laws, make health care affordable, protect Social Security, and invest in education. He'll make the right choices for our country.
Participants responded very well to the message as it spoke directly to their priorities namely, help at home and addressing the pressure on the middle class. And many also agreed with Kerry's assessment that Bush has a go- it-alone strategy that hurts the country. It is critical to recognize that the security reassurance at the beginning of Kerry's message was essential, inoculating Kerry from Bush's central critique on Kerry's commitment to the military and intelligence.
It is addressing more of the issues that we all discussed and he is talking about middle class and where we all fit and helping us out. (Orlando, non-college educated women)
One of the things that stood out to me as a truth of like where we are, the middle class income squeezed and healthcare cost are skyrocketing in the first one. (Orlando, non-college educated women)
We need a new direction. That is a good way to start. We need to be doing more about our economy, education, healthcare, retirement. I think those are very important things. (Columbus non-college educated women)
I like the way he says we should tackle America's problems and more about our own economy. (Columbus non-college educated women)
middle class income squeezed, which we are . . . I mean you know, I work two jobs sometimes, and we just barely made it. And my wife worked up until last year too. She had her own business and she gave it up 'cause she just . . . even with the tax break she got, she just couldn't make it anymore. So she just closed it down. (Columbus, non-college educated men)
And that middle class income squeeze, it's just true. The middle class is having a much smaller hand. I think it should be a more stable country. (Portland, college educated women)
The go-it-alone foreign policy, the middle class income squeeze speaks to me, health care costs skyrocketing, the rewarding companies relocating or outsourcing jobs abroad, negotiating lower drug prices. I mean, it spoke more specifically and I would agree with her rather than going on with this whole 9/11. It's more that I'm going to make you feel good, wave your American flag. And this one addresses more this is what we are dealing with. (Portland, college educated women)
Although Bush's message of leadership through 9/11 highlighted his main strength and the contrast with Kerry's tax increase highlighted a strong doubt about Kerry, the Bush message did not resonate as it ignored the problems facing these participants who were already doubtful of Bush's commitment to deal with domestic challenges. The Bush message:
President Bush says, Americans face a very clear choice in this election. John Kerry flip-flops on issues critical to our national security, from support for our troops in Iraq to funding for our Intelligence agencies, but wants to raise taxes by $900 billion to pay for more government spending programs. In the face of extraordinary challenges, I have provided the leadership these difficult times demand. We responded decisively to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, overthrowing outlaw regimes that threatened the security of our people, and delivered on my promises to cut taxes and increase accountability in our schools. I will continue to rebuild a military decimated by Democratic cuts, to decrease wasteful spending, and to ensure middle class taxpayers keep more of the money they earn.
Reactions to Bush's message were primarily unenthusiastic, even among those who chose it over the Kerry message.
I went on a believability thing. You know, I mean the top one (Kerry) is what I wish for, and the bottom one (Bush) is what I really think's gonna happen. And you know, do I think he'd raise our taxes? Yes. Cut taxes? I think the Bush Administration will probably do that or try to do that again. Rebuild that military? You know he's gonna do that. Decrease wasteful spending? I think he could and with the middle class taxpayers to keep more of our money. Personally I think that Bush will do it. I wish the things that Kerry says up there were true. I would love to vote for somebody like that, but I think that's reaching for the brass ring. (Columbus, non-college educated men)
You know, what worries me about John Kerry, this flip-flopping thing. You known, almost like is he gonna flip-flopping and we're gonna have to worry about terrorism if he's elected President? You know, is gonna just shut down the military thing all together? And this $900 billion scares me to death. Where the hell. Taxes on $900 billion more? That number is astronomical man. Think about it, $900 billion! (Columbus, non-college educated men)
More often, the Bush message elicited negative reactions for speaking past the problems that participants want prioritized.
The Bush one talks an awful lot about the 9/11 stuff. I don't know, I just think that's being helped. I don't think it's been handled properly from the beginning. The whole tactic of going to war to fight terrorism is misplaced. It's just making people angrier and more of them angry. (Portland, college educated women)
Bush is not even willing to stick his foot in his mouth and say, there is this problem. I am going to address it. Kerry at least willing to make a statement and stick his foot in his mouth and say so 4 years from now if Kerry wins, somebody is going to pull out these statements and say Kerry said he was going to do this, and do this and do this, the Republicans and they are going to say, well he didn't do that. Bush is walking a line that is just he is just not saying anything. (Portland, college educated men)
http://www.democracycorps.com/focus/Democracy_Corps_April_2004_Focus_Group_Report.pdf