Joanna
Wojtek Sokolowski wrote:
>Doug:
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>>I just had a vision, my second in a week....
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>>...Kerry by 5 points.
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>>
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>I had a similar hunch, but about 3-4 percentage points. Here is how I
>arrived at it. Assuming that the opinion polls are accurate, the split is
>about 50/50 - meaning nearly zero percentage point difference between the
>candidates. I assume, furthermore, that opinion polls are unlikely to
>capture newly energized and registered voters, and that these are largely
>against Bush by the factor 2:1. It is so because those who did not vote in
>the past and register now are more likely to those who are pissed off at the
>incumbent - happy campers tend to stay home. That gives the 67/33% split or
>about 33% lead for Kerry among newly registered voters. I furthermore
>assume that there will be about 5-7% upsurge of voters comparing to the
>usual voter turnout of about 50%. That translates into about 3-4 % lead for
>Kerry in the total popular vote.
>
>Wojtek
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