2000 election results:
Baker County Bush 5,610 Gore 2,392
It's plausible, BUT instead of 2:1, it's 3:1? With massive GOTV efforts in a 15% black county? Registered Dems switching to Republican candidate this year as opposed to 2004 0-they increased their ranks by 50%? Doesn't seem especially likely to me.... How many people switched to Reagan -- seems to be some kind of benchmark we could draw on.
> > In Dixie County, with 4,988 registered voters, 77.5% of them
> > Democrats and a mere 15% registered as Republicans, only 1,959 people
> > voted for Kerry, but 4,433 voted for Bush.
2000 election results:
Dixie County Bush 2,697 Gore 1,826
Really? Republican voters practically doubled their ranks? _That_ many people who voted for Gore actually switched? (Of course, we'd have to look at demographics. Even so, new movers to the county would, I would think, register Republican if that is where their sympathies lie -- you have to re-register if you move.)
If this is the pattern all over the south, it'd be one thing. But... just seems unlikely that THAT many people felt the need to vote republican this year when they voted demo in 2004. Even if we take seriously the polls beforehand, which were suggesting a shift in party ID by 5% -- that was only 5%.
>someone pointed out that smaller rural counties have been shifting
>republican (the shift now probably complete) but individuals may not
>have taken the trouble to change party registration. is that a possible
>explanation?
>
>also, if these counties have such small populations, why not pick 3 and
>go door to door and ask people whom they voted for. you would only need
>the democrats to answer, and if the number crosses 2180 (in baker) or
>1959 (for dixie), especially by a significant margin (and close to the
>expected number based on registration), we have actual data, and can
>avoid accusations of conspiracy theroies.
>
> --ravi
secret ballot? People wouldn't feel too good about a democracy where people go door to door and asked them who they voted for under the conditions you're talking about would they. It's one thing when it's just a pollster and they're not knocking on your door -- know where you live!
and, even so, you won't get honest responses. most people lie about who they voted for, saying they voted for the winner. I s'pose the pollsters have a pretty solid number from years of analysis which can be used to weight it, but it still won't be truly accurate. the only way would be to have a revote. and, uhm, goshes... imagine.
sounds like yummy fun, to me, but imagine. there _would_ be civil war in the streets over a forced revote.
kelley
"We live under the Confederacy. We're a podunk bunch of swaggering pious hicks."
--Bruce Sterling