Wednesday, Nov 03, 2004
Change in Myanmar
By R. Hariharan
Khin Nyunt's sacking as Prime Minister was the fallout of a power struggle in Myanmar's ruling military junta.
MYANMAR'S MILITARY strongman Than Shwe wrapped up his controversial visit to India with a pledge to bring democracy to his secretive state. He also said the junta would not let insurgents in the Northeast operate from Myanmar soil.
Only a week before he started his visit, he had suddenly "permitted" his Prime Minister, Lt. General Khin Nyunt, who was also the chief of Military Intelligence (MI) and No. 3 in the ruling military hierarchy, "to retire for health reasons." In military dictatorships, change at the top comes through palace coups or a key player's sudden fall from grace. In Myanmar, ruled by a military junta for over four decades, it has been the rule. Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the junta is called, and commander-in-chief of the Army, quickly appointed his loyalist, Lt. Gen. Soe Win, as Prime Minister.
In Myanmar, the intelligence apparatus is all-pervading, the 'big brother.' So the sacking of Gen. Nyunt is an important change in the power equation. Globally the exit of Gen. Nyunt, who had been an important figure in the process for restoration of democracy initiated by the U.N., has caused widespread concern.
There had been two major sackings in the past. In 1992, Than Shwe overthrew Senior General Sawe Maung to become the head of state. Earlier in 1983, Gen. Ne Win sacked his MI chief, Brig. Gen. Tin Oo, on corruption charges because the top brass found he had become too powerful for their good. But unlike in the past, there is a great deal of world interest now because of Aung San Suu Kyi's struggle, for the last 12 years, for the restoration of democracy. There is a great deal of international pressure, particularly from the U.S. and the European Union, on the military junta to hand over power to a democratically elected government. Moreover, Myanmar would like to exploit the economic opportunities that have opened up after it became a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Why was Gen. Nyunt sacked? What is its significance in resolving the key issues facing Myanmar - release of Ms. Suu Kyi, restoration of democracy, and ending the ethnic insurgencies? These issues are also of interest to India, not only because Myanmar is a strategic buffer on the East but also because it is the gateway to ASEAN countries. In Myanmar, where hundreds of journalists are behind bars and the press is gagged, hard facts are to be culled from rumours, misinformation, and the diplomatic grapevine, to draw reasonable conclusions.
There are currently a few theories circulating. One is that Gen. Nyunt had become all-powerful, much like Gen. Tin Oo in 1983, and he had to be cut to size. For long, Gen. Nyunt had the support of Ne Win who continued to pull the strings from behind the scenes long after he officially resigned in 1988. In 1997, he orchestrated the sacking of three powerful former regional commanders - Kyaw Ba, Tun Kyi, and Myint Aung - first by getting them ministerial posts, and later by removing them on corruption charges. In his capacity as spy chief, others feared Gen. Nyunt because he had compiled dossiers on everybody else within the ruling circle. He could not be touched as long as Ne Win was alive.
In 1994, Gen. Nyunt had established the Office of Strategic Studies (OSS) "to help run everything from the economy, health and education policy, archaeological excavation and foreign affairs, to the ceasefire negotiations with ethnic insurgent armies." His MI operated as an "invisible government" - a state within a state. This accumulation of power made the military top brass uncomfortable. The National Intelligence Bureau, which until this week was headed by Gen. Nyunt, has now been abolished. The NIB was an all-embracing octopus that comprised the Military Intelligence Service, the police Special Branch, the Bureau of Special Investigation, and the Criminal Investigation Department. It is significant that Than Shwe himself signed the decree abolishing the 1983 law that established NIB.
A second theory attributes it to the antagonism between Gen. Nyunt and Gen. Maung Aye, Vice-Chairman of the ruling SPDC and No. 2 in the ruling hierarchy. Gen. Aye is a career soldier who became the Vice-Chairman in 1992. He is essentially a field commander who wanted to keep the Army clear of politics. Gen. Nyunt had never commanded troops and operated through his intelligence apparatus from a plush office. For any uniformed soldier, such covert operations by men not in uniform are anathema. Some Myanmar watchers had been expecting a showdown between the two. Gen. Aye bided his time and struck. A major corruption scandal involving MI personnel, which was recently unearthed at a checkpoint on Myanmar's northern border with China apparently, provided a touch off for the final crackdown. Moreover Than Shwe, considered a hardliner, had difference of opinion with Gen. Nyunt on how to handle Ms. Suu Kyi and other issues on restoring democracy. He is also reported to have become increasingly unhappy with the fact that the international community saw Gen. Nyunt as the man to deal with.
The third theory relates to the Army trying to cut to size MI operations. The Army and MI are known to have been at loggerheads for some time now. Military operations against ethnic insurgent groups with whom Gen. Nyunt had worked out ceasefire agreements in the past would indicate this. The dismantling of the intelligence apparatus nurtured by Gen. Nyunt also supports this view. In this context, the state-controlled radio announcement on the dissolution of the NIB is significant: "The SPDC, which is striving to establish a modern, disciplined and democratic nation in line with the changing times, in the interest of the people, the security and the tranquillity of the country, has found that the NIB law is no longer practicable."
In other words, it was a reassertion of Than Shwe and Army supremacy over all other organisations. There are a number of businesses associated with MI and the former Prime Minister. It is reported that these have been closed down. According to local reports, the affected businesses included Bagan Cybertech, the Internet service provider run by Ye Naing Win, the younger son of Gen. Nyunt. It has been taken over by the Army. The reports also said that about 30 journals and magazines published under licences issued by MI have been shut. These would indicate that the Army had started the scaling down of MI operations in earnest.
As the military regime is involved in a struggle to stay in power against growing U.S. and E.U. pressure, the removal of Gen. Nyunt has left a lot of loose ends. Though he became Prime Minister only in 2003, he had become the most visible figure internationally in Myanmar's junta. On becoming Prime Minister, he announced the seven-step "road map to democracy" that was supposed to culminate in free elections. His sudden exit with the process yet to take off has caused dismay among many well-wishers of Myanmar. There are good reasons for this. As far as Ms. Suu Kyi is concerned, things are not looking bright. The new Prime Minister, Soe Win, is a hardliner who is believed to have masterminded the violent attack last year on Ms. Suu Kyi and her convoy.
The other is the sensitive issue of dealing with the ethnic insurgents who have agreed to a ceasefire. Gen. Nyunt had been the architect of the ceasefire agreements signed with 18 insurgent groups. He had built good rapport with them. Hardliners in the army have exhibited hostility to the ethnic minorities in the past, which could resurface again. The junta appears to be aware of the need to assuage the fears of ethnic groups. According to reports, immediately on assuming office the new Prime Minister and Lt. Gen. Thein Sein, the new Secretary-1 of the junta, met with several ethnic leaders and assured them that everything would remain the same.
The world is divided on the issue of dealing with the junta to usher in a democratic regime. On the one hand, the U.S. has slammed sanctions against the regime and E.U. countries have taken a hard line and linked it to the release of Ms. Suu Kyi and handing over power to the National League for Democracy. On the other hand, China, Japan, Australia, ASEAN, Russia, and increasingly India, would like to continue to deal with the military regime and use these contacts to impress upon it to restore democracy. They consider it essential to maintain a dialogue with the regime rather than ostracise it.
In welcoming Than Shwe, India has shelved its unstinted support for the Myanmar people's struggle for democracy. Nothing works like trade and commerce blended with oil politics to overcome scruples based on idealism.
(Col. Hariharan (retd.) is an intelligence analyst with more than two decades of experience in counterinsurgency intelligence.)
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