Opinion
UPDATED: 13:59, November 05, 2004
Chen Shui-bian intends to build a 'new strategic triangle'
HIGHLIGHTS: Maybe some day in the future, people would suddenly discover that the Taiwan issue has become a most important and most sensitive question between China and Japan.
Ishihara Shintaro, representative of Japan's ultra-Right forces and mayor of Tokyo has been carrying out activities in Taiwan these days. Though Ishihara' s present visit is carried out under the cover of "promoting the activity of going sightseeing in Taiwan", judged from the series of his performances put up during his previous visits to Taiwan and from the schedule made for his meetings with Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui and talks on matters concerning "China, Japan and Taiwan", the visit is obviously a trip with a strong political flavor.
Attempt to establish a US-Japan-Taiwan "new strategic triangle"
This is the fourth visit he paid to Taiwan since he was elected magistrate of Tokyo in April 1999, as well as his second tour to Taiwan within the recent five months. The only slight difference is that whether during his visit to Taiwan in November 1999 in the name of expressing sympathy for Taiwan hit by the disaster of earthquake, or in his Taiwan visit in May 2000 to attend Chen Shui-bian's first-term "inaugural ceremony", Ishihara was acting ostentatiously, he not only viciously attacked the Chinese mainland, but also openly supported "Taiwan independence", but in the recent two visits, he exercised much restraint, which was contrary to his previous practices.
However, despite his low-key, Ishihara is paying more frequent visits to Taiwan to carry out activities, this conveys an information that merits people's attention, that is, Chen Shui-bian authority is stepping up its effort to ingratiate Japan's Right-wing forces, it has taken ever-greater move in its attempt to build a US-Japan-Taiwan "new strategic triangle". If the Chen Shui-bian authority's past work with Japan was regarded "as mysterious as a submarine", then this work, though still in a somewhat disguised manner, has surfaced, changing from dark into light after Chen's re-election.
Chen and Koizumi gradually act in step
When in office, Lee Teng-hui energetically fostered relationship with Japan. Taiwan also had a huge "Taiwan gang" in Japan, Lee Teng-hui himself was also wantonly flattered by Japan's Right-wing forces, but limited by Japan's internal and external environment at that time, Taiwan-Japan relations gained no notable breakthrough.
At the beginning of Chen Shui-bian's assumption of power, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authority's ties with Japan were not close, lacking the veins of human beings, this once put Chen in a predicament in his handling of Taiwan-Japan relations. Later, with the past "diplomatic resources" transferred by Lee Teng-hui after "Lee-Chen collaboration", the DPP authority first set up a "work with Japan group" led personally by Chen Shui-bian in the "presidential office", then it established the DPP "Taiwan-Japan friendship association" with Hsieh Chang-ting, who once studied in Kyoto University and was then the party chief, appointed as its president, designating strengthening work with Japan as the focus of its foreign strategy, it was only then that the situation took on a new look. In May this year, before Chen Shui-bian formally assumed office, he hastily appointed Hsu Shi-kai, "an old hand of the independence faction" who had long been engaged in "Taiwan independence" activities in Japan, to be the "representative in Japan", it is thus clear what importance Chen has attached to Taiwan-Japan relationship.
In the meantime, great change has also taken place in Japan's domestic situation. Against the backdrop of China's gradual rise and the continued slump of Japan's economy, some Japanese politicians energetically agitate that "there is problem with Japan's national spirit", and "this national spirit should be revitalized" and "Japan's national strength should be restored" by way of revising the constitution, the domestic Right-wing trend of thought has obviously raised its head. In such an atmosphere, the counter-China and assist-Taiwan argument is in vogue in Japan's political circle, especially among some pro-Taiwan Diet members, making it a kind of fashionable "thought".
The Koizumi cabinet has always been regarded as being friendly toward Taiwan, after the publication of the "emergence legislation on war contingencies" Three Bills, the cabinet thought that this seemed to have given it a "legal basis" for meddling in the affairs of the Taiwan Straits, furthermore, relying on its "contribution of money and strength" to US attack on Iraq and the country's postwar reconstruction, the cabinet calculated even if it did something that went beyond the pattern on questions related to Taiwan, the United States could hardly blame it, and might even encourage and reward it, therefore, the cabinet became more audacious from its second term of office. After the second half of last year, first of all, Japanese Self-Defense Forces invited several "Taiwan independence" elements to watch mammoth troops review on the sea, the Taipei Affairs Office of the Japanese Exchange Association held in Taibei a cocktail party congratulating Japanese emperor's birthday, and then former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori visited Taiwan on "private business" under the circumstance wherein Chen Shui-bian was plunged into predicament for his insistence on pushing for "referendum", all this gave Chen Shui-bian authority surprise pleasure.
Taiwan-Japan ties led to "alternation of generations"
In recent years, Taiwan-Japan relations have obviously been upgraded and have experienced some new changes.
First, the two sides have more common languages in the convergence of "basic value" and idea. On the questions of Japan's history of aggression, on Koizumi's Shrine visit and on the issue of Diaoyu Island, although Chen Shui-bian authority, under pressure of Taiwan Island's public opinion, dare not give Japan open and unscrupulous support, they had a strong flavor of being cheek by jowl with Japan. After the Asian Cup tournament this year, Chen again made use of the subject to claim that "it seems Beijing is still not so qualified to host the 2008 Olympic Games", speaking this in support of Ishihara. Recently, they also jointly proposed establishing a "Taiwan-Japan democracy and freedom value alliance".
Second, Chen Shui-bian authorities achieved notable result in roping in Japan's politicians of Kainozoic era, especially Diet members, thus leading Taiwan-Japan ties to "alternation of generations". After the 1990s, with the rapid rise of Japanese politicians of Kainozoic era, the pace of the replacement of the old by the new in the Japanese political arena was obviously quickened. Compared with the older generation, this group of people place more emphasis on the importance of stability in the Taiwan Straits to Japan's security, thinking that the applicable scope of the guiding principle of Japan-US defense cooperation concerning the "surrounding situation", of course, should include Taiwan, they even advocate that Japan should further upgrade its ties with Taiwan to "substantive relations", and need not "take cue from the Chinese government". This happens to coincide with the expectations of Chen Shui-bian authority, and becomes a "spiritual bond" that links them together.
In recent years, Diet members of various Japanese parties have come to visit Taiwan in a continuous stream, some Diet members of the new generation even feel it honored to meet Chen Shui-bian and Lee Teng-hui. The "theory of expecting Ishihara to be prime minister" obviously leaves Taiwan authorities much room for imagination. Chen Shui-bian is in ardent flirtation with Ishihara, probably this is a reason for their tacit understanding.
Breakthrough progress in military exchange
More importantly, there has been breakthrough progress in "security maintenance" and military exchanges between Taiwan and Japan. "Dialogs on security maintenance" between Taiwan and Japan have become increasingly formal and profound in recent years. Some former Japanese defense officials and retired military officers have constantly played up "China's armed threat", advertising that Taiwan should step up purchase of military equipment and establish "cooperative alliance" relationship with Japan, bolstering and pepping up "Taiwan independence".
A Canadian magazine commentary revealed this July that after suffering repeated setbacks in its purchase of submarines, Taiwan has turned its eyes to Japan with advanced submarine technology. Luo Fu-chuan, Taiwan's former "representative to Japan", immediately made strengthening "Taiwan-Japan-US security maintenance ties" the focus of work. Hsu Shi-kai also claimed that further advancement of "Taiwan-Japan security cooperation" would be the primary target of his work. At the recent "Taiwan-Japan forum", You Hsi-kun, "president of the Administrative Yuan" of Taiwan, openly declared that there is already "security maintenance treaty" between the United States and Japan, and there is the "Taiwan Relation Act" between Taiwan and the United States, Taiwan and Japan should take advantage of this to further establish a "security dialog channel", thus revealing his intention of drawing up the line of military cooperation between Taiwan and Japan, so as to form a new strategic triangle of Taiwan, the United States and Japan".
It can thus be seen that based on its national interests and the need of regional security, and restricted by the general international pattern, although Japan would not lose the greater for the less by making drastic adjustment of its policy toward the Taiwan Straits, under the collusion between Chen Shui-bian authority and Japan's Right-wingers, however, Taiwan-Japan relationship is indeed a "surging undercurrent", and to a certain extent there exists the danger of a qualitative change, which must not be treated lightly. If this trend cannot be brought under effective control and reversed, the Taiwan issue will exceed the question of history and bring more and greater troubles to China-Japan relations. It is even possible that some day in the future, people would suddenly discover that the Taiwan issue has become the most important and most sensitive question between China and Japan.
This article is written by Sun Shengliang at the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and translated by People's Daily Online
Copyright by People's Daily Online, all rights reserved