Tatu, you know, the Russian lesbian schoolgirl pop duet that made it to the US Top 10 a year or so ago.
There is no doubt that the economic recovery is due mostly to high oil prices and the recovery of domestic production after the 1998 devaluation of the ruble, which priced imports out of the market. However, I don't think there is much doubt that part of it is due to the stablizing effects of the much maligned abroad, much celebrated at home (a usual combination) of Putin's "managed democracy" and "power vertical," as they are called here. No one would want to invest in the anarchy of Yeltsin's Russia, where laws would be rewritten several times a year, sometimes retroactively, not foreigners and not even Russians (that's why there was so much capital flight, largely). Businesses in Russia in the 90s made plans a few months ahead -- get in, much as much money as quickly as possible in whatever way possible, and then leave, taking the money out of Russia. Now they make them years ahead. Without stability, you have nothing except collapse. Now you have a basis. A few years ago there was much talk of Russia's imminent annihilation. Putin, or rather the forces he represents, have saved this country. For that I am grateful.
Will the stability last is another issue. So much of the system that Putin has laboriously constructed relies on him personally. I suspect he will be tempted to revise the Constitution to allow himself to serve for more than two terms. If not, he will try to appoint a successor to continue his grand project of returning Russia to great power status.
As far as the population is concerned, as I wrote, the middle class is growing rapidly and poverty had halved. Pensions and salaries for public sector employees (teachers, doctors, police officers, etc.) have doubled from unlivable to barely livable and they are paid on time. I do not see much indication that things have improved for the bottom 10% or so of the social strata. (Keep in mind that most Russians don't pay rent; about half grow their own food; public transportation is close to being free; teachers, doctors, etc. live mostly on tips and/or bribes, not salaries; etc.)
I don't think Russia is in a situation in which a comprehensive left program could be established, unfortunately. For instance, take progressive taxation. That is unfeasible in Russia, because almost anybody who has money works in the "gray economy," i.e., works for a company that says to the government "employee X earns $50 a month," turns around and pays employee X $1000 a month (this is a good salary in Russia), and pays the tax collector to look the other way. Nobody knows what anybody actually earns.
None of this can be addressed until corruption is successfully addressed (fat chance of doing that). Corruption is far and away Russia's biggest problem.
--- Michael Dawson <MDawson at pdx.edu> wrote:
> That's all great (except for the usual Russian
> reference of which I can't
> make heads or tails -- who or what is Tatu?), but
> the question I ask is more
> about the character of Putin's politics. What is
> the basis for the economic
> growth? Is Putin really attacking the pirates?
> What is the state doing to
> protect the population? Is the stability likely to
> last, and why? Why and
> how much should we of the left be cheering Putin?
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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