>Gallup goes to Kerry. 53-37 or some such.
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13237>
Kerry Wins Debate Viewers also more favorable to Kerry, but opinions about Iraq and military leadership still favor Bush
by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- John Kerry won the debate Thursday night, 53% to 37%, according to a random sample of 615 registered voters who watched the event. Almost half of the viewers said they felt more favorable about the senator because of the debate, and 60% said Kerry expressed himself more clearly than did President Bush.
Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a somewhat smaller margin, 71% to 17%. But independents chose Kerry by a two-to-one margin, 60% to 29%.
Among viewers who indicated in the pre-debate survey that they intended to vote for Kerry, 93% thought Kerry won the debate and only 3% said Bush did.
Bush's supporters were not as convinced their candidate won -- choosing Bush by 68% to 19%, with 11% saying it was a tie.
Men and women expressed virtually identical views in favor of Kerry.
Despite the positive assessment, viewers said they favored Bush in handling the war in Iraq and serving as commander in chief, little changed from opinions expressed before the debate. And a majority of viewers said it was Bush who better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.
The poll shows that 46% of viewers said they felt more favorable toward Kerry as a result of the debate, while just 13% felt less favorable. By comparison, just 21% of viewers felt more favorable toward Bush, and 17% felt less favorable.
How has your opinion of John Kerry/George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry -- more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much? [Names rotated.]
However, viewers did not change their minds about who would do a better job in Iraq or better serve as the country's military leader.
Prior to the debate, viewers chose Bush over Kerry in handling the Iraq war by 54% to 40%. After the debate, the comparable figures were essentially unchanged, 54% to 43%.
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle the situation in Iraq.
Similarly, viewers pointed to Bush as the candidate they would trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief -- before the debate by 55% to 42%, and after the debate by 54% to 44%.
Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief of the military -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?
Viewers saw Kerry as more articulate in the debate than Bush (60% to 32%), though they divided equally as to which candidate had a better understanding of the issues (41% each).
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?
Viewers leaned toward Bush on which candidate agreed with them on issues, who was more believable, and who was more likable. And by 54% to 37%, viewers said Bush better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.
These results are based on a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Thursday night immediately after the end of the presidential debate, which ended at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time. Respondents in the sample were first interviewed Sept. 28-29, when they indicated they expected to watch the debate and that they were willing to be called when the debate finished.
In that pre-debate survey, 52% of the viewers who were included in Thursday night's sample said they supported Bush and 44% supported Kerry, similar to the vote preference measured among likely voters in the Sept. 24-26 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Thirty-six percent of Thursday night's viewers identified themselves as Republicans, 32% as independents, and 32% as Democrats.
Survey Methods
All results are based on telephone interviews with 615 registered voters, aged 18 and older, who watched the presidential debate Sept. 30, 2004. Respondents were first interviewed Sept. 28-29, 2004, when they indicated there was some chance they would watch Thursday's debate and were willing to be called back. For results based on the total sample of debate watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.