[lbo-talk] Kerry vs Bush

[Doug Henwood]

Luke Weiger wrote:

>Gallup goes to Kerry.  53-37 or some such.

<http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13237>

Kerry Wins Debate
Viewers also more favorable to Kerry, but opinions about Iraq and 
military leadership still favor Bush

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- John Kerry won the debate Thursday night, 53% to 
37%, according to a random sample of 615 registered voters who 
watched the event. Almost half of the viewers said they felt more 
favorable about the senator because of the debate, and 60% said Kerry 
expressed himself more clearly than did President Bush.


Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while 
Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a somewhat smaller 
margin, 71% to 17%. But independents chose Kerry by a two-to-one 
margin, 60% to 29%.

Among viewers who indicated in the pre-debate survey that they 
intended to vote for Kerry, 93% thought Kerry won the debate and only 
3% said Bush did.

Bush's supporters were not as convinced their candidate won -- 
choosing Bush by 68% to 19%, with 11% saying it was a tie.

Men and women expressed virtually identical views in favor of Kerry.

Despite the positive assessment, viewers said they favored Bush in 
handling the war in Iraq and serving as commander in chief, little 
changed from opinions expressed before the debate. And a majority of 
viewers said it was Bush who better demonstrated he is tough enough 
for the job.

The poll shows that 46% of viewers said they felt more favorable 
toward Kerry as a result of the debate, while just 13% felt less 
favorable. By comparison, just 21% of viewers felt more favorable 
toward Bush, and 17% felt less favorable.

How has your opinion of John Kerry/George W. Bush been affected by 
the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry -- more favorable, less 
favorable, or has it not changed much? [Names rotated.]


However, viewers did not change their minds about who would do a 
better job in Iraq or better serve as the country's military leader.

Prior to the debate, viewers chose Bush over Kerry in handling the 
Iraq war by 54% to 40%. After the debate, the comparable figures were 
essentially unchanged, 54% to 43%.

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please 
tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle 
the situation in Iraq.


Similarly, viewers pointed to Bush as the candidate they would trust 
more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief -- before 
the debate by 55% to 42%, and after the debate by 54% to 44%.

Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander in 
chief of the military -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?



Viewers saw Kerry as more articulate in the debate than Bush (60% to 
32%), though they divided equally as to which candidate had a better 
understanding of the issues (41% each).

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please 
say whether you think each one better described John Kerry or George 
W. Bush during tonight's debate. How about -- [Random Order]?


Viewers leaned toward Bush on which candidate agreed with them on 
issues, who was more believable, and who was more likable. And by 54% 
to 37%, viewers said Bush better demonstrated he is tough enough for 
the job.

These results are based on a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted 
Thursday night immediately after the end of the presidential debate, 
which ended at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time. Respondents in the sample 
were first interviewed Sept. 28-29, when they indicated they expected 
to watch the debate and that they were willing to be called when the 
debate finished.

In that pre-debate survey, 52% of the viewers who were included in 
Thursday night's sample said they supported Bush and 44% supported 
Kerry, similar to the vote preference measured among likely voters in 
the Sept. 24-26 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Thirty-six percent of 
Thursday night's viewers identified themselves as Republicans, 32% as 
independents, and 32% as Democrats.

Survey Methods

All results are based on telephone interviews with 615 registered 
voters, aged 18 and older, who watched the presidential debate Sept. 
30, 2004. Respondents were first interviewed Sept. 28-29, 2004, when 
they indicated there was some chance they would watch Thursday's 
debate and were willing to be called back. For results based on the 
total sample of debate watchers, one can say with 95% confidence that 
the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical 
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into 
the findings of public opinion polls.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to 
additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several 
days.