[lbo-talk] ABC's InstaPoll

[Doug Henwood]

ABC NEWS POLL: THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE - 9/30/04

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

A Win for Kerry

In the First Debate

John Kerry won the first debate and with it a shot at reinvigorating 
his campaign for the presidency. But in the first blush, vote 
preferences among viewers were unmoved.

Among a random sample of 531 registered voters who watched the 
debate, 45 percent called Kerry the winner, 36 percent said it was 
Bush, and 17 percent called it a tie. It was a clean win for Kerry: 
Independents by a 20-point margin said he prevailed.

Moreover, while 70 percent of Bush's supporters said Bush was the 
winner, considerably more Kerry supporters - 89 percent - said their 
man won.



                                    Who won?

                            (among debate viewers)

                     Kerry           45%

                     Bush            36%

                     Tie             17%

As is customary, the debate did not immediately change many minds. 
Bush's support was 50 percent among viewers before the debate and 51 
percent after it; Kerry's, 46 percent before, 47 percent after. Ralph 
Nader had 1 percent before and a tad less than that after.



                     Vote preference among debate viewers

                     Before the debate   After the debate

             Bush           50%                51%

             Kerry          46%                47%

             Nader           1%                <0.5%


This kind of immediate reaction is typical in presidential debates, 
which tend to reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. 
But the debates - an essential window on the candidates' style as 
well as their substance - can affect the race more subtly as voters 
move toward their final judgments.

The results of this survey are not among all registered or likely 
voters; instead they are among registered voters who watched the 
debate Thursday night. Still they are similar to the race overall, 
51-45 percent among likely voters, in an ABC News/Washington Post 
poll earlier this week.

PARTY ID - Political party allegiance of debate viewers also was 
quite similar to its division among all likely voters nationally. 
Among debate viewers, 35 percent identified them selves as Democrats, 
35 percent as Republicans and 24 percent as independents. It was a 
36-35-23 percent division among all likely voters in the last 
ABC/Post survey.



                             Party ID of debate viewers

               Democrats               35%

               Republicans             35

               Independents            24



Partisanship drove views of who won, but again the advantage was to 
Kerry. While 69 percent of Republicans said Bush won, more Democrats, 
81 percent, said Kerry won. And among independents, 48 percent said 
Kerry won, while 28 percent picked Bush.



                                  Who won?

                              Kerry   Bush   Tie

                Democrats      81%     6     11

                Republicans     7      69    22

                Independents   48      28    24





GROUPS - While there's a gender gap in presidential preference, 
pluralities of men and women alike said Kerry won the debate. Women 
picked him over Bush as the winner 46-39 percent; men picked Kerry by 
43-34 percent. Men were more apt, though, to call it a tie.



                                 Who won?

                             Kerry   Bush   Tie

                    Men       43%     34     23

                    Women     46      39     12



Kerry also was called a winner disproportionately by people in two 
groups - older (age 65+) and younger (18-29) registered voters - 
collectively, 49 percent of them called Kerry the winner, 34 percent 
Bush. (But very few 18- to 29-year-olds watched; they tend to be less 
interested in politics.) Among middle-aged voters it was a closer 
42-38 percent split.

Debate viewers in the East and West, the two regions where Kerry's 
done better in vote preference, also were somewhat more likely to 
call him the winner. Views on who won were more evenly divided in the 
South and Midwest.

METHODOLOGY - This survey was conducted by telephone among a 
random-sample panel of 531 registered voters who watched the 
presidential debate. Respondents were initially interviewed Sept. 
23-29. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Sampling, data 
collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.



Analysis by Gary Langer.



Here are the full results:



1. Who, in your opinion, won the debate?



          Kerry  Bush  Tie   No opin.

9/30/04   45     36    17     2





2. Presidential preference among debate viewers:



              Bush   Kerry   Nader  Other   No op.

Post-debate   51     47       *      *       1

Pre-debate    50     46       1      *       1



* = less than one percent



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