FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
A Win for Kerry
In the First Debate
John Kerry won the first debate and with it a shot at reinvigorating his campaign for the presidency. But in the first blush, vote preferences among viewers were unmoved.
Among a random sample of 531 registered voters who watched the debate, 45 percent called Kerry the winner, 36 percent said it was Bush, and 17 percent called it a tie. It was a clean win for Kerry: Independents by a 20-point margin said he prevailed.
Moreover, while 70 percent of Bush's supporters said Bush was the winner, considerably more Kerry supporters - 89 percent - said their man won.
Who won?
(among debate viewers)
Kerry 45%
Bush 36%
Tie 17%
As is customary, the debate did not immediately change many minds. Bush's support was 50 percent among viewers before the debate and 51 percent after it; Kerry's, 46 percent before, 47 percent after. Ralph Nader had 1 percent before and a tad less than that after.
Vote preference among debate viewers
Before the debate After the debate
Bush 50% 51%
Kerry 46% 47%
Nader 1% <0.5%
This kind of immediate reaction is typical in presidential debates, which tend to reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. But the debates - an essential window on the candidates' style as well as their substance - can affect the race more subtly as voters move toward their final judgments.
The results of this survey are not among all registered or likely voters; instead they are among registered voters who watched the debate Thursday night. Still they are similar to the race overall, 51-45 percent among likely voters, in an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this week.
PARTY ID - Political party allegiance of debate viewers also was quite similar to its division among all likely voters nationally. Among debate viewers, 35 percent identified them selves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans and 24 percent as independents. It was a 36-35-23 percent division among all likely voters in the last ABC/Post survey.
Party ID of debate viewers
Democrats 35%
Republicans 35
Independents 24
Partisanship drove views of who won, but again the advantage was to Kerry. While 69 percent of Republicans said Bush won, more Democrats, 81 percent, said Kerry won. And among independents, 48 percent said Kerry won, while 28 percent picked Bush.
Who won?
Kerry Bush Tie
Democrats 81% 6 11
Republicans 7 69 22
Independents 48 28 24
GROUPS - While there's a gender gap in presidential preference, pluralities of men and women alike said Kerry won the debate. Women picked him over Bush as the winner 46-39 percent; men picked Kerry by 43-34 percent. Men were more apt, though, to call it a tie.
Who won?
Kerry Bush Tie
Men 43% 34 23
Women 46 39 12
Kerry also was called a winner disproportionately by people in two groups - older (age 65+) and younger (18-29) registered voters - collectively, 49 percent of them called Kerry the winner, 34 percent Bush. (But very few 18- to 29-year-olds watched; they tend to be less interested in politics.) Among middle-aged voters it was a closer 42-38 percent split.
Debate viewers in the East and West, the two regions where Kerry's done better in vote preference, also were somewhat more likely to call him the winner. Views on who won were more evenly divided in the South and Midwest.
METHODOLOGY - This survey was conducted by telephone among a random-sample panel of 531 registered voters who watched the presidential debate. Respondents were initially interviewed Sept. 23-29. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.
Here are the full results:
1. Who, in your opinion, won the debate?
Kerry Bush Tie No opin.
9/30/04 45 36 17 2
2. Presidential preference among debate viewers:
Bush Kerry Nader Other No op.
Post-debate 51 47 * * 1
Pre-debate 50 46 1 * 1
* = less than one percent
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