Let's start with the start, then I'll hold my nose, and duck out of the discussion.
>> As in Palestine, the occupation is the main cause of the current
troubles. This certainly does not mean that the attacks will end if we
leave; but whatever we do to try to resolve internal conflicts is likely
to backfire. Continuing US military control, direct or indirect, will
intensify anti-Americanism (as in post-1965 South Vietnam) and provide a
training ground for terrorism, both indigenous and from other countries.<<
Begged questions (based on more than this chunk, but I really don't have much time for the whole piece, so...):
1. The US is there to resolves internal conflicts. 2. That anti-Americanism in the Arab world is roughly equivalent to 'breeding terrorism'. 3. Oh, for freak's sake, that the US and its military planners never intended to stay in Iraq like they have in Germany, Japan, Okinawa, Cuba, Italy, and how many other freaking places? The main intent seems quite likely to get out of the Gulf States, put lots of bases in Iraq (in the north and south, once Iraq was 'pacified'), and stay there as long as they damn well please.
As for what the US national security state 'consensus' on the nature of the future Iraq is, if the country proves intransigent and needs to be broken up to accomplish the mission, then so be it. The huge Shia piece of the puzzle hasn't fallen into place because quite likely it's not mentally possible for ziocons and zioliberals to think of Shia as a diverse group with differences of opinions and the desire to act on them. Young, urban Shia, it turns out, are quite a bit like the Sunna, who have been fighting the US since the very start.
So the US will move to keep Iraq disunited and go for a 'democratic' federation that keeps Iraqis from unifying against puppet regimes or permanent US occupation. Most likely the US military and occupation authorities will spend more money on running fake elections in Afghanistan and Iraq than they do running fake elections in the US--but don't worry, that money won't be wasted on the people of those countries, it will go nicely into the accounts of the insiders who got the contracts.
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