So the reality is that Bush HAS to bounce to have a chance of winning. Only real gains in the polls translate into vote gains for incumbents. For Kerry, all he has to do is drive down Bush's numbers below 50% and not allow the undecideds to be diverted to third party candidates. History shows that, on election day, anyone who hasn't committed to the incumbent by then won't vote for them in the end. Challengers, on the other hand, get election day totals higher than their poll numbers.
-- Nathan Newman
----- Original Message ----- From: "Brad Mayer" <gaikokugo at fusionbb.net> To: <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org> Sent: Monday, October 04, 2004 1:26 PM Subject: [lbo-talk] Can Kerry Make it?
Sorry to bust your leftwing Democrat-hoping bubble, but this is all Kerry's getting, barring some unforseen event that does Bush in:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Note the Votemasters' new methodology.
The Pensylvania chart was interesting in that it showed more of a Bush dive rather than a Kerry gain. If I know my Americans, this just means that a certain section who want to vote for Bush are temporarily embarrassed to admit they are pulling the lever for a chimp. They are waiting for the inconvenient moment to pass, and they'll snap to. But even if they don't, Pennsylvania is not enough.
Ohio shows demoralized Kerry hopers snapping to, but it is still not enough. Everything else being equal, as things stand Kerry _must_ put "barely Bush" Ohio _and_ Iowa (and not Nevada or not New Hampshire, sorry but no E.C. tamale) in the bag. Otherwise, the Kerry campaign must score some heretofore unknown breakthrough in the "weak Bush" zone, i.e. the "unforeseen event" must occur. So far though, Bush has proven time and again that he has a rock-solid and HUGE base of consistent support at ~45%. Boy, "America" sure is in trouble with such a proven mass of clueless delusionals! Won't they be surprised when historical reality whacks them upside the head! They are neatly mirrored by leftwing Kerry supporters and hopers.
And don't get your hopes up about the Newsweek poll - nothing is said about E.C. distribution, and that is what counts - so what if even more voters in N.Y. don't like Bush? Newsweek shows that too many still think "terrorism" is the most important issue, and that of course is the Bush/Cheney trump card.
If this is all the bounce Kerry's going to get, then he's not likely to win. When Bush bounces, he pulls ahead; when Kerry 'bounces', he just pulls even. That means that Bush has the empty-headed swing vote which, because it has no perspective of its own, wants more than anything else someone who is not like them, a "strong leader". When the Great Leader has a bad hair day, they waver, but once he's got his coiffure in order, they'll snap back.
That is the genius of Rove's focus from the beginning on Kerry's 'flipflopping': He holds a mirror up to them from which they shrink in the horror of self recognition: "Kerry's l-l-like ME! Aaauuugh, I'm for Bush, the Strong Leader!"
Ideally, the whole farce should be thrown to the lawyers, Congress (where we can watch the Dems capitulate again) and the Supremes, in a constitutional mess even worse than 2000. (Rubbing hands in anticipatory glee) That's my best hope!
-Brad Mayer
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