[lbo-talk] Can Kerry Make it?

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Mon Oct 4 11:46:12 PDT 2004


Nathan:
> We haven't even see state polls after the debate, so who really knows what
> the bounce is. But a basic reality is this: Kerry doesn't need to pull
> ahead of Bush in the polls to win. He just needs to keep Bush below 50%
> since undecideds overwhelmingly break for the challenger to an incumbent:

Isn't it that the opinion polls depend ultimately on the lists of already registered voters and do not include newly registered voters? Normally, it does not matter that much, but this year there are many reports of voter registration offices being overwhelmed by new applications. I see it a a good sign - because those who are happy with the incumbent and did not vote in the past usually do not bother go into the trouble of registering and voting. It is those who do not like the incumbent that do.

Another observation - I am really nonplussed by the position taken by many lefties that take a perverted pleasure in denouncing Kerry, predicting his doom, or pledging their allegiance to traitorous egomaniacs like Nader. It so pathetically stupid that it defies explanation - the only one that comes to mind is pathological contumacy as a form of self-promotion.

Wojtek



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