[lbo-talk] Doodling on Punctuated Equilibrium

[snit snat]

At 10:17 AM 10/22/2004, Doug Henwood wrote:
>Carrol Cox wrote:
>
>>Periods of
>>change, moreover, _always_ catch us by surprise (as the 1917 revolution
>>caught everyone, including Lenin and the Bolsheviks, by surprise).
>>Nevertheless, our current activity should be grounded in the assumption
>>that such a surprise is coming, else we _will_ never even be remotely
>>ready for it when it does come.
>
>
>
>>The people who share our principles are out there, and reaching them
>>around programs in which they can actively participate (as opposed to
>>the passivity of voting out of desperation for someone whose principles
>>they oppose) is the task of leftists today. That task is furthered both
>>by the MWM and the Nader campaign; it is frustrated by the despairing
>>surrender of so many leftists to the ABB.
>
>If periods of great social change take us by surprise, then how do you 
>know that such marginal bits of wankery as the Nader campaign and the MWM 
>will contribute anything to it? You must have some confidence that the 
>surprise won't really be much of a surprise - it you just keep flapping 
>your arms in the familiar manner, then history will finally fall into line 
>behind you.
>
>Doug

According to reviews Gould ended up gutting the theory of punctuated 
equilibrium:

I read this book review (9.28.02 issue of The New Yorker, H Allen Orr) and 
thought it was interesting. Haven't had a chance to read the book, though. 
According to the review, Gould ended up reassessing his claims about 
"punctuated equilibrium." Gould conceded that change happens all the time.

So, why the appearance of a pattern in the fossil record? "only if species 
split do the resulting differences last long enough to have a shot at 
showing up as fossils". From what the reviewer has
argued, PE has been gutted as a theory of change and resurrected as a 
theory of why the fossil record appears as it does. An excerpt from TSET, 
<<http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/gould_structure.html>http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/gould_structure.html> 

See also the wikipedia entry which explains the popular misunderstandings 
about the concept.

Kelley

"We live under the Confederacy.
We're a podunk bunch of swaggering
pious hicks."

                --Bruce Sterling 
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