Analysis: Is Putin a Republican? By Peter Lavelle Published on October 19, 2004 This article was written for UPI - United Press International
MOSCOW, Oct. 19 (UPI) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin weighed into American domestic politics on Monday with words that unmistakably endorsed George W. Bush's re-election bid. With only a handful of world leaders willing to publicly praise the American president and even fewer willing to publicly support his campaign, Vladimir Putin is openly backing his American counterpart for another term. Does this make Putin a Republican or just a very savvy politician?
At a regional summit in Dushanbe, the Tajik capital, Putin made his feelings clear as to how he views Bush and his fight to keep his job with the statements, "Any objective observer understands that attacks by international terrorist organizations in Iraq, in today's circumstances, are aimed not so much at the international coalition forces as at President Bush personally."
Putin went to say, "International terrorism has as its goal the inflicting the biggest possible damage on President Bush, preventing him from being re-elected to a second term. If they achieve their goal, then that will give international terrorism a new impulse and extra power." Clearly these are words of strong support for Bush. However, read differently, Putin may actually be taking a long view of Russia's geopolitical position and where he wants his country to be in four years.
This is not the first time Putin has publicly supported Bush in the context of American domestic politics. Last June, Putin lashed out at Democrats, claiming they had "no moral right" to attack Bush on the issue of Iraq. Putin's outspokenness surprised many in Russia and the United States -- Russia, after all, was one of the major countries in the world that was strongly against the use of military force against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. However, this did not stop Putin from claiming, during the same June press conference, that Russia had intelligence that Saddam planned terrorist attacks against interests before the invasion of Iraq.
Since June and particularly after Monday's comments, many commentators have pondered what Putin gets in return for his support of Bush. The most common speculation is that Putin and Russia's political class would rather see a Republican in office -- not unlike the general party secretaries who rule the Soviet Communist Party. The common belief is that a Republican president has the same pragmatic stripe as the ruler in the Kremlin.
It is believed that Democratic administration under John Kerry would be much harder on Russia in the areas of human rights and, in particular, the ongoing conflict in Chechnya. Also, it is claimed that the Kremlin continues to harbor ill feelings toward Democrats for strong support of Boris Yeltsin as Russia plunged into disarray and poverty as well as Bill Clinton's decision to have NATO bomb Yugoslavia in 1999. Lastly, it is said that Putin appreciates Bush's muted approach when commenting on the Russian president's political reforms at home that centralizes all power within Kremlin walls.
These are all reasons for Putin to hope Bush will remain in the White House. However, countries have international interests, not friends. After five years of Putin, it is clear the Russian president is brutally pragmatic and unmoved by sentimentality. Putin most probably appreciates that George Bush has spoken out on his behalf when the world would not -- but this most certainly does not influence his overall foreign policy agenda.
Putin supports Bush because he sees four more years of this president as an opportunity to realize one of his primary agendas -- cementing Russia's return to great power status. This Bush administration has been consumed by preparing and later carrying out the ongoing military operation in Iraq. Most agree that this conflict as well as other conflicts in the region will not be resolved anytime soon. In many ways, this suits the Kremlin just fine. America's focus on Iraq creates room for Russia to move within the "coalitions of the willing and unwilling." A re-elected Bush will be a mandate for America's recent unilateralist foreign policy -- the same foreign policy that has helped Putin move adroitly on the international arena. Putin's trip to China last week demonstrates how America's unilateralism energizers Russia's multilateralism and its ability to play international energy politics well.
The Kremlin does not worry if a Kerry administration were come to pass. The "free pass" some have claimed the Bush administration has given Russia lacks substance. There is no "free pass" because the Kremlin has repeatedly demonstrated that it will not tolerate criticisms of Russia's domestic policies -- Chechnya included. A Kerry administration, like the present administration, will have little, if any, leverage to make any public demands on how Putin rules at home.
The Kremlin also knows that whoever is elected in November will continue to work with Russia on the key areas of energy cooperation, anti-proliferation measures, the war on international terrorism and trade.
Putin has good reason to see Bush re-elected. Russia's foreign policy prospects have made a remarkable rebound during Bush's time in office. Yet, if Kerry is elected, the United States will still have to deal with the war in Iraq -- an area where Vladimir Putin just might provide a strong helping hand. Whether it is Bush or Kerry, Russia will remain a necessary ally -- warts and all.
===== Nu, zayats, pogodi!
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