> Putin supports Bush because he sees four more years of
> this president as an opportunity to realize one of his
> primary agendas -- cementing Russia's return to great
> power status. This Bush administration has been
> consumed by preparing and later carrying out the
> ongoing military operation in Iraq. Most agree that
> this conflict as well as other conflicts in the region
> will not be resolved anytime soon. In many ways, this
> suits the Kremlin just fine. America's focus on Iraq
> creates room for Russia to move within the "coalitions
> of the willing and unwilling." A re-elected Bush will
> be a mandate for America's recent unilateralist
> foreign policy -- the same foreign policy that has
> helped Putin move adroitly on the international arena.
> Putin's trip to China last week demonstrates how
> America's unilateralism energizers Russia's
> multilateralism and its ability to play international
> energy politics well.
There is another aspect of it as well - US unilateralism may act as a stick for countries like China or even EU to closely cooperate with Russia to counterbalance that unilateralism. When the French ambassador to the US spoke at JHU just after the outbreak of the Iraq war - I asked him whether the US action meant a closer military cooperation between France (and EU) and Russia. The answer was "yes" - even though he tried to be very conciliatory toward the US.
Despite tough talk, the belligerence of Bush administration is a good thing for US international competitors for two reasons.
First, it reveals the limits of US military power. If the US military cannot stabilize a fourth rate Third World state that has been substantially weakened first by a prolonged war with its neighbor and then by crippling 10-year economic sanctions - stronger states, such as Iran, can rest assured that US war planners will think twice before invading them.
Second, it provides a strong incentive for other countries to overcome their differences and form a united front to counterbalance the US power. Any such alliance needs at least one strong partner whose military capability can stand up to (even if it does not match) that of the US. Russia is ideally poised to play the role of that strong partner.
One potentially discomforting conclusion of this analysis is that Bush reelection is good for the world in the long run, because it will weaken US imperialism while cementing international cooperation to counterbalance the US power.
Wojtek