[lbo-talk] Time: Bush has 11-point lead

[Doug Henwood]

By the way, the Time poll is of likely voters; the American Research 
Group poll, of registered voters. It's not easy to project who the 
likely voters are, especially this year. The standard technique is to 
assign each person in the sample a voting likelihood (based on 
demographics and past behavior), then rank the sample on the basis of 
likelihood, then cut exclude those below a certain likelihood based 
on projected voter turnout. But predicting turnout is very tricky.

Doug