[lbo-talk] Some more perspective on the Time and Newsweek Polls

ira glazer ira at yanua.com
Sat Sep 4 11:36:41 PDT 2004


cross-posted from http://armando.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/4/142624/2624

Kevin Drum, and now our own DemfromCt, a brilliant guy, absolutely smart as shit about politics, make a mistake that would shame a 5th grader.

When discussing the Time and Newsweek polls, they speak as if each confirms the other, and maybe Bush did get a big bounce from his Convention.

My Gawd men, can you not understand that a poll that pushes leaners during a Convention will show a better result for the candidate holding the Convention at the time of the poll?!?!?!

So Time and Newsweek show 10 point leads, Rasmussen shows 4, and Zogby 2, to take the 4 most discussed.

Boy, how do we account for that difference? Pretty fucking simple, Time and Newsweek pushed undecideds to pick - including leaners (who knows if they really are leaners, any followup, but especially this type, is rife for distortion) - thus they registered higher numbers, particularly for the candidate who was having his Convention - namely Bush. and yes, this was true for Kerry in July - boy you didn't see those polls be trumpeted as the holders of all the truth did you?

How about comparing Convention bounce using only those polls?

My Gawd, if our guys get the polls so wrong, what can we expect of the idiot Media.

Sheesh.



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