>Not exactly true. Nukes are more like submarines: once you've heard
>one, you can recognize it again. If there's a new design, it can take a
>while to develop an understanding of what it looks like.
Could be, my recollection (years since I read stuff on test monitoring techniques, found more life affirming pastimes) was that the seismograph reading for a nuke was unique because of the large amount of energy released in a concentrated area leading to a unique pattern, versus even a small tremor that dissipates energy along a fault. If you knew where it was (triangulation) and the geology of the area you could figure out how big the blast was in KT or MT based on the wave forms (amplitude and frequency). Interesting comparison, as I think it's similar to how sonar works.
>On the other hand, the isotopes in the atmosphere is something that the
>folks in Sweeden would see pretty quickly, and there's no keeping their
>mouths shut (especially after Chernobyl).
Oh yeah, the odd leak not withstanding I suspect the Japanese may be twitchy about that as well.
>I'm not sure I agree with this; PRK detonating a nuclear device is not a
>tactical threat: we might not even see a change to DEFCON 4 in response
>to that. It's a strategic threat, to be sure, but DEFCONs are meant to
>be used to define alert postures: ready for attack.
Guess I'm more cynical about the Bushies and their need for sideshows, I think they'd love an excuse to go after NK, this would give them their opening.
>I don't think if PRK tested a weapon that we'd be bracing for an attack.
Yeah, you're probably right, I still think they'd exploit it.
>And finally: even if "they knew it" it's not clear at all that "we"
>would find out about it in a timely manner. DEFCON changes are not on
>the crawl: several of the DEFCON changes in history have never been
>announced.
Agreed, people are always amazed to hear that the US instigated more high level warnings than the Soviets ever did, usually because of shit going on in the mid-east (again, if memory serves).
PC
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