[lbo-talk] Russia just about brings Kyoto into force, maybe

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Sep 30 08:08:30 PDT 2004


Russian Move Clears Way to Bring Kyoto Into Force By Darya Korsunskaya

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian government approved the Kyoto Protocol (news - web sites) Thursday, giving decisive support to the long-delayed climate change treaty that should allow it to come into force worldwide.

The controversial pact will now be passed to the Kremlin-dominated parliament for ratification.

President Vladimir Putin (news - web sites)'s government acted despite worries by many officials who say the 1997 U.N. pact, which orders cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to slow global warming, would harm the economy and not protect the environment.

The European Union (news - web sites) hailed Moscow's decision and seized the moment to urge Washington, whose rejection of the pact in 2001 left it dependent on Russia's approval, to rethink its position.

"The fate of the Kyoto protocol depends on Russia. If we... rejected ratification, we would become the ones to blame (for its failure)," Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov told the cabinet meeting.

Russia, which accounts for 17 percent of world emissions, has held the key to Kyoto's success or failure since the United States pulled out.

The pact becomes binding once it has been ratified by 55 percent of the signatories which must, among them, account for 55 percent of developed countries' carbon dioxide emissions.

Kyoto has surpassed the first requirement as 122 nations have ratified it. But without Russia they account for only 44 percent of total emissions.

Russia, a signatory of the pact, initially prevaricated on ratification. But in May Putin backed it in exchange for EU agreement on the terms of Moscow's admission to the World Trade Organization (news - web sites).

"We warmly welcome the decision," a European Commission (news - web sites) spokesman said in Brussels. He added that the EU now encouraged Washington to review its attitude to the pact. Environmentalists and experts were equally positive.

"Now he (Putin) can go down in history as the savior (of Kyoto)," said Benito Mueller, an expert on the issue for British-based think-tank the Royal Institute for International Affairs.

BATTLES STILL AHEAD

However, Thursday's meeting left unanswered the question of when parliament could practically debate ratification. Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, who was absent from the cabinet meeting, predicted a tough battle in the State Duma, the lower house.

"The discussion on the subject is open and debate is likely to be difficult," Fradkov was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying on a visit to the Netherlands.

Proponents of Kyoto say that apart from contributing to environmental security worldwide, Russia would be encouraged to upgrade its industries to match new standards and could earn billions of dollars selling excess quotas for gas emissions.

But opponents said Russia was likely to be the loser.

"The Academy of Science confirms its position that the protocol is not effective and gives us no advantages," the head of the academy's institute on climate change and ecology, Yuri Izrael, told the cabinet meeting.

Putin's economic adviser Andrei Illarionov warned that new environmental standards would cost industry more and undermine the Kremlin's plan to double gross domestic product in 10 years.

"Many economic calculations show that if the protocol is ratified, the doubling of GDP (news - web sites) becomes impossible in the next 10 years," Illarionov said. "This will require changes in the social and economic policies."

But the influential head of Duma's international affairs committee, Konstantin Kosachev, said that, despite differences, parliament had the means to ratify Kyoto smoothly now that the government had expressed its will.

"There seems to be a consensus over the political importance of Kyoto, while economic and ecological consequences are the issues causing trouble," he told reporters.

"If the government decided the pact should be ratified, it must have thought that the latter two are not that important."

There is no official time limit for the cabinet to send a ratification request to the Duma. Kosachev said that if it was quick in coming, his committee could consider it by the end of the year to prepare for a full-session debate.

Interfax said ministries linked to the environment had been given three months to work out practical measures arising from Russia's obligations.

Government officials have said that Russia needs changes in environmental legislation, new regulations on measuring emissions and rules for trading quotas.



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