[lbo-talk] Peak Oil or Oil Bubble?

[Wojtek Sokolowski]

Jordan:
> Public transit is not a "solution" to this issue.  It's going to take
> something radical to change the current equation, and if the recent
> history is any guide, public transit is a slow, expensive way to try
> (usually unsuccessfully!) to change behavior.  I'm all for more and
> better public transit, but you're sticking your head in the sand if you
> think that's what $5/gal gas is going to do.

Using transit requires both push- and pull- factors.  The latter includes a
system that is efficient (i.e. easy to use, quick, and inexpensive) as well
as comprehensive (i.e. fulfilling a large share of transportation needs).
That is to say, if I can take transit to and from work, but I need to drive
anywhere else, the cost of transit commute is larger than the marginal cost
(i.e. additional increase) of automobile commute.  In that situation it
makes little sense to reduce the number of automobiles per household.  Otoh,
if we can use transit to most household transportation needs, reducing the
number of autos per household makes sense.

The cost of auto transportation are the push factor.  Gas price is one of
them but not only one.  Other include traffic jams, maintenance costs etc.

Wojtek