Trying to come to terms with the World Bank chart that Doug posted and the EIA spreadsheet I was referring to I noticed that the World Bank presented their GDP figures in 1995 PPP$ and their energy in kg of oil equivalent. The EIA used 1995 US dollars at market exchange rates and Btus. I think it is safe to assume that the energy conversions should work out the same either way and that therefore the discrepency must be in the PPPs v. market exchange rates. Since I was talking about imports to the US from China, the market exchange rates makes more sense to me than PPP.
It so happens that in going back to the archives to see what discussion there has been on LBO about PPP I discovered that last June I posted a message that sourced the same energy intensity spreadsheet that I just sourced again. Astonishingly I asked the question about comparing PPPs and the Btu per GDP tables:
>It would be interesting to do some comparisons of the PPP indexes and the
>Btu per GDP tables. I wonder to what extent they would show similar trends.
Although I apologize for the pedanticism, I am posting below that message from June 2004.
The Sandwichman
[lbo-talk] GDP, PPP and Btu
It's possible, perhaps useful, to bring together two threads here: "End of
Suburbia: Peak Oil" and "GDP per capita/Dougs comments". The Energy Information Agency of the U.S. Department of Energy publishes a statistical series showing energy consumption in Btus per US dollar of GDP.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/total.html#IntlConsumption
Several comments can be made at a glance. One, U.S. energy consumption per dollar of GDP (2002) was twice as high as Germany's and 75% higher than France's. Japan's energy intensity was 37% of the U.S.'s. Second, China's energy consumption was more than three times that of the U.S. To some extent, a country's energy intensity of GDP reflects opportunistic decisions -- a major petroleum producer can use a lot because, in effect, it's "free". On the other hand, the pattern presumably reflects to some extent past investment decisions in infrastructure and climatic and geographical characteristics.
With regard to the PPP discussions, the consideration of energy consumption as a constituent of GDP highlights how misleading is a literal reading of GDP as indicating well-being. Azerbaijan consumed 14 times as much energy per dollar of GDP as the U.S. in 2002. Presumably, this was entirely because the resource was there and thus the price in Azerbaijan was insignificant. It would be interesting to do some comparisons of the PPP indexes and the Btu per GDP tables. I wonder to what extent they would show similar trends.
By the way, if you visit the web page mentioned above, don't miss the chart showing the relationship between world oil prices and US GDP. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/gdpwop.gif
Tom Walker
