[lbo-talk] Global warming stats: latest from US Dept of Energy

Patrick Bond pbond at mail.ngo.za
Fri Apr 15 23:18:07 PDT 2005


The data in the latest US DOE report which Tom cited are internally inconsistent (see C02 per capita emissions of 20.3 metric tons in the US country report but 5.5 in the SA country report; and another divergence in the energy intensity stat). They also don't square with the Paris international energy agency where I sourced some data on energy intensity (see my 2002 coverage below).

It goes to show that measurement is crucially difficult. I don't know how some people believe they can construct a carbon trading market from this mess.

Patrick

***

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

USA: Total Energy Consumption (2002E): 98.3 quadrillion Btu; (2003E): 98.1 quadrillion Btu (25% of world total energy consumption) Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions (2002E): 5,796 million metric tons of carbon (about 24% of world total carbon emissions) Per Capita Energy Consumption (2003E): 338 million Btu Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions (2002E): 20.3 metric tons Energy Intensity (2003E; nominal): 8,918 Btu Carbon Dioxide Intensity (2002E; nominal): 0.55 metric tons of carbon dioxide/thousand dollars

SOUTH AFRICA: Total Energy Consumption (2002E): 4.5 quadrillion Btu* (1.11% of world total energy consumption) Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions (2002E): 377.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (1.5% of world carbon dioxide emissions) Per Capita Energy Consumption (2002E): 101.5 million Btu (vs. U.S. value of 339.1 million Btu) Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions (2002E): 2.3 metric tons of carbon dioxide (vs. U.S. value of 5.5 metric tons of carbon) Energy Intensity (2002E): 9,853 Btu/$1995 (vs. U.S. value of 10,619 Btu/$1995)** Carbon Dioxide Intensity (2002E): 0.81 metric tons of carbon dioxide/thousand $1995 (vs. U.S. value of 0.63 metric tons/thousand $1995)**

***


>From my book Unsustainable South Africa (2002, London, Merlin Press):
Not including net exports of greenhouse gas pollutants--since South Africa is the world's second largest exporter of coal after Australia--the energy sector contributed 78% to South Africa's share of global warming and more than 90% of all carbon dioxide emissions in 1994. What happened subsequently? Data are still coming in, but the trends are disturbing. In 1998, South Africa emitted 354 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to 2,291 kilograms of carbon per person (a 4% increase from 1990 levels). South Africa is amongst the worst emitters of CO2 in the world when corrected for both income and population size, far worse than even the United States, as shown in Table 6. Only a few countries rival South Africa in a CO2/GDP*population comparison, most of which are mainly producers of fossil fuels and which flare gas or oil, rather than competing with South Africa as inefficient energy consumers through the minerals beneficiation process. In terms of population size alone, many countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have higher emissions, but when corrected again for both population and income, South Africa is far worse than nearly all the major developed countries. Both globally and in South Africa, carbon emissions are growing, not reducing, in spite of economic stagnation and mass employment loss. In 1990, the average carbon emissions from fossil fuel production internationally was 1,130 kilograms per person. Already, experts judged this to be 70% above unsustainable levels, and set a target of reductions from 1990 levels--indexed at 100--to 339 kilograms of carbon emissions per person. To reach the sustainable level would put the world at a '0' point on a sustainability vector. South Africa took no action to reduce emissions over the period 1990-98, and indeed allowed them to increase from 2,205 to 2,291 kilograms of carbon per person. Instead of lowering emissions on the 0-100 vector scale, the emissions/person ratio actually increased, from 226 in 1990 to 247 in 1998.

Table 6 Energy sector carbon emissions, 1999

Area

Population (mns)

CO2/

person

GDP

($bns)

CO2/GDP

(kg/$bn)

CO2(kg)/

GDP*pop

S.Africa

42

8.22

$164

2.11

0.0501

Africa

775

1.49

$569

1.28

0.0016

USA

273

20.46

$8,588

0.65

0.0023

OECD

1116

10.96

$26,446

0.46

0.0004

World

5921

3.88

$32,445

0.71

0.0001

NOTE: The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are those measureable through fuel combustion.



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